Several key economic indicators are expected to stabilize over the near term. Gross domestic product for 2026 is expected to hold steady, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) forecasts are stabilizing, and little change is expected for the 10-year Treasury for August.
However, evolving economic policy has made forecasting increasingly challenging, according to a Colliers’ analysis by research director for U.S. capital markets, Aaron Jodka.
“Economists and forecasters are earning their keep,” Jodka said. “With changing tariff, tax, and spending policies, models are being put to the test. Real estate analysis has generally been seen as a mix of art and science, and that mindset seems increasingly relevant in today’s economic forecasting.”
GDP forecasts have slightly improved in recent months, said the report. The mean now stands at 1.7% with a range of 1.3% to 2.4%. The higher estimates have come from the National Association of Home Builders and S&P Global Market Intelligence. Moody’s Analytics expects GDP growth of 1.4%, while Oxford Economics forecasts GDP growth of 2%.
The consensus mean outlook for CPI is stabilizing at 2.7%, which is even with last month but down 0.1 percentage points from three months ago, said the analysis. That level of inflation remains well above the Fed’s 2% target, noted Jodka. First Trust Advisors expects CPI to come in at 1.8%, Georgia State University projects 2%, Ford Motor Company and Moody’s Analytics expect a much higher CPI of 3.2%.
The higher for longer trend for the 10-year Treasury is expected to continue, with a mean of 4.2% forecasted at the end of August. Estimates range from 3.8% to 4.7%, said the report.
The market is currently pricing in a 25-basis-point rate cut expected at the Fed’s next meeting in September.
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