Commercial real estate deal volume is surging again, marking a sharp turn for the industry after months of uncertainty. According to LightBox, total transaction activity hit its highest point of 2025 in July, up 10% from June, despite ongoing worries about inflation and a flagging job market. The monthly snapshot, released at the start of the third quarter, offers a rare glimpse between the typical quarterly market reports and reveals investors increasingly targeting deals that feel safer amid shifting economic tides .
LightBox’s data split the action into two bands: midcap deals ranging from $50 million to $100 million, and large transactions above $100 million. What’s missing from their breakdown is the $5 million to $25 million segment—which Green Street previously identified as surprisingly resilient. Over the first half of 2025, those smaller deals notched a 3.5% year-over-year gain, driven largely by renewed confidence in office transactions .
The number of midcap trades climbed to a year-to-date high in July, with 72 deals closing compared to just 58 in June. LightBox noted that more investors are gravitating toward these mid-sized assets, as pricing is clearer and financing is easier to secure. “There’s still meaningful liquidity in the market, but it’s moving toward asset profiles that feel more manageable in today’s interest rate and risk environment,” Manus Clancy, LightBox’s head of data strategy, said.
Multifamily properties dominated the count, accounting for 38 of the midcap deals—a result that more than doubled June’s volume for apartments. No other segment came close. Heavy demand for rentals, especially in fast-growing metro areas where owning a home remains prohibitively expensive, is keeping apartment activity brisk. Additionally, the looming maturity of existing loans and a lack of refinancing options are pushing some owners to transact.
Retail, industrial, office and land deals all slipped from their June marks, with retail activity shifting up the price spectrum. Industrial sales fell from 17 in June to nine last month, while office trades dropped from eight to five and land transactions declined identically from eight to five. The July data, according to LightBox, underscore a market in transition, with investors rethinking strategy in the face of evolving economic pressures..
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