A new report from Markerr points to significant regional realignment in multifamily rent growth across the U.S., with the strongest projected gains over the next five years expected in several Rust Belt and Northeast markets. The findings underscore how localized factors, rather than national trends, are shaping the outlook for rental housing.
Among more than 100 major metro areas analyzed, Augusta, Georgia, is expected to lead the nation in projected multifamily rent growth through 2030, at an annual compound growth rate of 5.7 percent. Close behind are Syracuse, New York, at 5.6 percent and Youngstown, Ohio, at 5.4 percent. Other notable markets in the top ten include Albany, Rochester and Scranton in the Northeast, as well as Springfield, Missouri, Springfield, Massachusetts, Dayton, Ohio and Providence, Rhode Island. These top-performing areas are striking for their geographic diversity but also share a common thread: they are either in the Rust Belt or Northeast, often characterized by affordable rents and stable demand dynamics.
The top ten are almost exclusively smaller or “tertiary” metros rather than the established growth markets that dominated rent leaderboards during the 2020 to 2022 boom. The report points specifically to these tertiary areas as best positioned to maintain above-average rent increases, citing both a modest supply pipeline and resilient demand. Northeast and Rust Belt regions are poised to capture more of the nation’s rent growth, a notable shift after years where the Sunbelt led the way.
At the other end, the report slots Seattle, Austin and Salt Lake City in the bottom three for projected multifamily rent growth, with annual gains expected between just 2.5 and 2.8 percent per year over the next half decade. Other slow-growth metros rounding out the bottom ten include Jacksonville, Lakeland, Daytona Beach, San Diego, San Jose, Sarasota, San Antonio and Cape Coral. Many of these markets are struggling with sizable new construction pipelines, which are expected to limit their ability to push rents upward in the near term. Austin and several Florida metros, once poster children for multifamily investment, are singled out for ongoing headwinds due to new supply and softening demand.
Supply-related challenges are a common denominator among the lagging markets in the report. In locations like Austin, Sarasota and Cape Coral, surging deliveries during and after the pandemic have created a glut of newly built rental units. This has forced operators to offer concessions and limit rent hikes. Meanwhile, rising insurance premiums and HOA assessments—especially in Florida—are further straining landlord bottom lines and dampening rent growth prospects.
Beyond the headline rent growth forecasts, Markerr notes a cooling trend for national rents. Data, as of August, shows just a 0.50 percent year-over-year increase, a meaningful deceleration from the highs seen earlier in 2025. The national average effective rent stood at $2,038, reflecting a market still growing, but at a more measured pace.
Single-family rentals are also experiencing notable regional differences. The report finds the strongest single-family rent growth in the Northeast and Midwest, especially in cities like Providence, Chicago and Syracuse. Florida metros, by contrast, are seeing the weakest rent performance for single-family homes, with areas such as Cape Coral, Sarasota and Lakeland all posting declines for detached housing.
Affordability remains a pressing issue in gateway cities. The least affordable multifamily rental conditions are found in New York, Miami and Los Angeles, where rent-to-income ratios far exceed 30 percent. Secondary and tertiary markets such as Wichita, Huntsville, and Ogden, Utah, stand out for their low rent burdens, with rent-to-income ratios closer to the 16 to 18 percent range, making them considerably more accessible for locals.
The report relies on machine-learning models that incorporate supply, demand and economic metrics, aiming for a forward-looking analysis at the metro-area level. According to Markerr, the recent cooling in national rent growth, ongoing affordability constraints and diverging prospects among regions all reflect a market that is far less uniform than in recent years. The next five years, the report suggests, are likely to favor new areas over the old standbys.
© Arc, All Rights Reserved. Request academic re-use from www.copyright.com. All other uses, submit a request to TMSalesOperations@arc-network.com. For more information visit Asset & Logo Licensing.