The bifurcation of the grocery sector is widening, with traffic growth concentrated at both the low-income/value and high-income/fresh ends of the market. Despite this highly polarized spending trend, all four major grocery categories posted annual traffic growth for the second quarter, demonstrating that consumers are interested in visiting a wide range of formats, according to a Placer.ai research analysis.
Traditional grocers posted their first rebound in traffic since early 2024. Meanwhile, after dominating traffic growth through most of last year as shoppers prioritized affordability, value stores saw traffic growth decelerate, although it continues to expand. Fresh formats are now the fastest-growing segment, fueled by affluent shoppers in search of health, wellness and convenience. Ethnic retailers maintained their steady pattern of modest but consistent gains.
Grocery traffic patterns have been shifting over the past two years, with short trips under 10 minutes growing more quickly than longer visits. While short trips still make up less than one-quarter of all U.S. grocery trips, their steady expansions suggest a behavioral shift with staying power and one that will likely continue to reshape the sector, said Placer.ai.
Fresh formats are benefiting the most from the growing preference for quick shopping trips. Average dwell times at these stores are shorter than those in other categories. However, fresh formats attract the smallest share of loyal customers who visit at least four times per month, suggesting these brands are not being used as a primary weekly shopping destination.
“Instead, they capture supplemental trips from consumers looking for specific needs – unique items, high-quality produce, or a prepared meal – who also value the ability to get in and out quickly,” Placer.ai explained.
Traditional grocers like H-E-B and Kroger, on the other hand, continue to thrive on a classic supermarket model built around frequent, comprehensive shopping trips. These stores have the highest share of loyal visitors, providing them with a reliable customer base that spends more time shopping.
Value grocers exist between traditional and fresh formats in terms of both dwell time and visit frequency. A focus on private-label goods and an inventory geared toward budget-conscious shoppers and those stocking up on essentials has proven to be an effective strategy.
Broad market trends favor value and fresh-format grocers, but traditional ones that tailor their strategies to fit their target demographics and geographies can be successful. In the first half of 2025, H-E-B and Harris Teeter significantly outperformed their category's 0.6% average year-over-year visit growth, posting gains of 5.6% and 2.8%, respectively. H-E-B leans into major metropolitan areas like Austin and San Antonio, while Harris Teeter has cultivated a strong following in suburban and satellite cities in the South Atlantic region.
“Their success demonstrates that even in a polarizing environment, there is ample room for traditional formats to thrive by deeply understanding and catering to a specific target audience,” said the report.
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