The U.S. economy is contending with multiple forces that could influence the trajectory of the multifamily housing sector in the fourth quarter and beyond, according to an analysis by Arben Skivjani, deputy chief economist and director of forecasting for RealPage.
Notably, the final day of the third quarter marked the beginning of an ongoing government shutdown, following three quarters of political uncertainty. Despite this, the second quarter delivered “surprisingly strong upside,” Skivjani noted. The economy grew at an annualized rate of 3.8% — the fastest pace since Q3 2023 — driven by a sharp drop in imports and resilient consumer spending.
However, the labor market has not kept pace with the broader economy. Employers, navigating tariffs and persistent political uncertainty, have slowed hiring. The economy added only about 100,000 jobs in July and August — well below the pace seen last year.
“This continues the trend of weaker employment growth seen earlier in the year, with gains nearly 50% lower than the first half of last year,” said Skivjani. “Over the past four quarters, job creation has totaled less than 1.5 million, significantly underperforming compared to the prior year.”
So far, tariffs have had only a modest impact on inflation through Q3. The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index rose 2.7% as of August — slightly above last year’s level. Amid growing signs of labor market weakness, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September, with at least another reduction expected before year-end.
These economic developments have influenced RealPage’s latest multifamily housing forecasts. Skivjani said the firm projects effective asking rent growth to fall below 2% by the third quarter of 2026. About 18% of the nation’s top 50 markets are expected to see rents grow between 3% and 3.9%, with Miami likely to deliver an even better performance with forecasted annual rent growth of nearly 4%.
Half of the largest markets are projected to see rent growth between 2% and 2.9%, while roughly 15% will grow in the 1% to 1.9% range. Five markets are expected to experience rent declines over the coming year, with Denver forecast to see the sharpest drop — more than 3%.
A slowdown in new multifamily deliveries is also expected to continue into 2026. Roughly 323,000 new units are scheduled to come online nationwide over the next four quarters, with the top 50 markets accounting for about 88% of that total. Stronger growth is expected in Phoenix, New York and Newark, with each projected to add more than 19,000 units. Dallas and Los Angeles round out the top five, with 18,000 and 14,000 new units expected, respectively.
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