Amid the ongoing federal government shutdown, the Bureau of Labor Statistics announced it will release the September Consumer Price Index (CPI) report on October 24. According to Reuters, all other data collection, processing and publication activities will remain suspended until the government resumes normal operations, according to a Reuters report.
The BLS said the CPI report is being published to assist the Social Security Administration in determining the 2026 cost-of-living adjustment (COLA). This year, more than 72.5 million Social Security and Supplemental Security Income (SSI) beneficiaries received a 2.5% increase.
The report will also be released just in time for the Federal Reserve’s upcoming policy meeting on October 28, where another 25 basis-point interest rate cut is widely expected. The central bank previously lowered the benchmark overnight interest rate by 25 basis points in September amid concerns over slowing employment growth.
However, the shutdown has already disrupted about a third of the data typically collected for the CPI, raising concerns about the reliability of upcoming reports.
“As prices rise on average, collecting prices only at the end of October may result in a higher average than if prices were collected throughout the month,” said Veronica Clark, an economist at Citigroup.
“This implies a larger change relative to average September prices. But it also means prices at the end of October would be more similar to average prices in November, implying a smaller change in November.”
Economists have also pointed out that the BLS collects some price data only every other month, which could lead to distorted CPI figures in the coming months. These irregularities may also affect the accuracy of the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index — the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, as it targets 2% inflation.
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