Population growth across the United States is increasingly concentrated in the South and Southeast, with coastal and Sunbelt metros driving much of the expansion, according to the latest Markerr Population Forecast through August 2031. The data shows that smaller but rapidly growing cities like Myrtle Beach, South Carolina, and established metropolitan areas such as Houston and Dallas are leading the way, while older industrial and coastal urban centers are struggling to hold residents.
Myrtle Beach is projected to finish 2025 as the nation’s fastest-growing metro area, posting an annual population increase of 3.2%. The coastal city has recorded sharp, sustained growth across the past five years, with yearly gains exceeding 3.5% since 2020. Florida markets also dominate the near-term growth outlook: Port St. Lucie, Lakeland, and Orlando each show forecast gains between 2.2% and 2.3%, while Charleston, South Carolina, and Fayetteville, Arkansas, are expected to grow around 2.0%.
Larger metros in the South are expanding in absolute numbers as well. Houston is projected to add about 165,000 residents in 2025, continuing a pattern of triple-digit population gains seen since 2020. Dallas follows close behind with an expected increase of approximately 147,000, while Atlanta, Orlando, and Charlotte are each forecast to add more than 50,000 new residents during the year. New York City, after reversing pandemic-era losses, is anticipated to grow by 177,780 residents, marking one of the largest annual rebounds among major markets.
In contrast, several regions show consistent population loss. New Orleans ranks as the weakest-performing metro area, with a projected 0.1% decline in 2025 following multiple years of contraction. While some of its losses have slowed relative to sharper earlier declines, the city remains in negative territory. Northeastern and Rust Belt metros such as Pittsburgh, Buffalo, Syracuse, and Rochester, New York, also appear at the bottom of the forecast list, with population growth rates hovering near zero or slightly negative. Thousand Oaks, California, and Los Angeles join the group of bottom markets, continuing a pattern of net outmigration from parts of Southern California.
Looking further ahead, Markerr’s five-year compound annual growth forecasts again underscore the dominance of Southern metros. Myrtle Beach, Sarasota, and Cape Coral, Florida, lead all markets with expected average annual growth above 3% through 2030. Other high-performing markets include Boise, Idaho, Provo-Orem, Utah, and Huntsville, Alabama, all forecast to expand between 2.6% and 2.8% per year. Meanwhile, the slowest-growing areas—New Orleans, Pittsburgh, Memphis, and Akron—are projected to record annual gains at or below 0.1% through the same period.
The report highlights that seven of the top ten projected growth markets over the next five years are concentrated in Florida and the Carolinas, reinforcing the South’s position as the country’s primary driver of population expansion. In contrast, the Midwest and Northeast continue to face demographic stagnation, underscoring long-term economic and migration trends that favor warmer, lower-cost regions.
Markerr’s forecast draws on machine-learning models trained on U.S. Census, Population Estimates Program, and American Community Survey data to provide population projections at both the metropolitan and ZIP code levels. The company’s analysis indicates that population momentum will remain strongest in areas combining affordability, employment opportunity, and quality of life—all characteristics that are reshaping national growth patterns.
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