A clearer picture is emerging of how commercial real estate lenders behaved in the first half of 2025, and the shifts suggest how the rest of the year could unfold. According to MSCI, lender composition has changed notably from pre-pandemic norms, signaling a reshaped financing landscape driven by new risk appetites and capital sources.
Between 2015 and 2019, the typical lending mix reflected a stable hierarchy: 17% commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS), less than 10% investor-driven, virtually no private or other lenders, 23% government agencies, 11% insurance, less than 10% international banks, 15% national banks and 17% regional or local banks.
By 2024, that balance had started to shift, with CMBS up to 23%, investor-driven lenders rising to 11%, and government agencies and insurers maintaining around 25% and 12%, respectively. National banks had slipped to roughly 8%, while regional and local banks held steady at 17%.
In the first half of 2025, however, the landscape evolved again. CMBS dipped slightly to 21%, but investor-driven lending rose to 14%, extending a trend that began before the pandemic. Government agencies retreated to 20%, down five percentage points from the prior year, often pulling back when private capital regains strength in multifamily lending. Banks collectively accounted for one-third of lending, up from 27% in 2024, driven by strong momentum from national lenders.
National banks increased their share by 300 basis points, a 90% year-over-year gain, after several years of balance-sheet caution. Their loan-to-value ratios remained steady, which MSCI noted as evidence of stable credit quality. Regional and local banks grew from 17% to 19%, while investor-driven lenders—those offering the highest LTVs—showed the most aggressive stance.
CMBS issuance softened by 200 basis points but remained stronger than its pre-pandemic share, preserving its relevance across property sectors. By property type, CMBS maintained dominance in the office sector, accounting for 41% of lending, followed by 10% from investor-driven sources, 14% from national banks and 23% from regional and local banks.
Industrial lending showed a broad distribution: 18% CMBS, 16% investor-driven, 21% insurance, 15% national banks and 24% regional or local financial institutions. In retail, 34% of loans came through CMBS, with 11% from insurers, 13% from national banks and 30% from local or regional banks.
Hotel financing was led by regional and local banks at 29%, with 27% CMBS and 22% investor-driven capital. Multifamily lending remained anchored by government agencies at 45%, supported by 15% from investors and 11% from insurance participation. In senior housing, 36% came from agencies, 29% from regional and local banks, 12% from insurance and 11% from investor-driven lenders.
Loan size also shaped lender behavior. For loans under $10 million, community and regional banks dominated, accounting for 57% of volume, compared with 12% from national banks and 10% from government agencies. Among mid-sized loans between $10 million and $50 million, government agencies led at 35%, followed by regional and local banks at 22%, investor-driven lenders at 12% and insurers at 10%. At the upper end, for loans exceeding $50 million, CMBS captured 42% of the market, with investor-driven lenders at 16%, government agencies at 10%, insurers at 12% and national banks at 11%.
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