Commercial real estate’s looming wave of loan maturities, long viewed as a source of concern, is now taking clearer shape as critical dates approach. Tracking the issue has never been simple—beyond public sources like CMBS, data on loan timelines can be opaque—but new research from MSCI and others sheds more light on the scale and timing of the challenge.
In its latest Capital Trends report, MSCI found that nearly $300 billion in commercial real estate loans were set to mature by the end of 2025, as of midyear. Another $600 billion had been extended either into late 2025 or beyond, reflecting ongoing flexibility from lenders. That trend appears to be accelerating. According to CRED iQ, lenders modified about $11.2 billion in loans during the third quarter alone, an indication that many financial institutions remain in “extend and pretend” mode, pushing out maturities to manage risk.
Based on current data, maturities are projected to total just under $300 billion for 2025. The figure is expected to climb above $500 billion in 2026 and nearly $600 billion in 2027 before tapering to roughly $420 billion in 2028 and 2029, and about $320 billion by 2030.
CMBS lenders account for the largest share of upcoming maturities at 27% in the second half of 2025, according to MSCI. Regional banks follow with 20%, national banks with 13% and international banks bring the total from the banking sector to 40%.
“Banks hold an even larger share of the loans likely to have been extended, accounting for more than half of the volume,” MSCI noted.
Investor-driven lenders are behind 22% of likely extensions, with their 2025 maturities representing about 13% of the total by value. CLOs and government agency lenders appear roughly equivalent in volume but were not broken out separately in MSCI’s analysis.
On an asset level, multifamily properties represent the single largest share of maturing loans at 35% in the second half of 2025. Office properties make up about 20%, but they comprise roughly 25% of the loans that have likely been extended—a disproportionately high share suggesting ongoing stress in that sector.
Foreclosure patterns reflect similar pressure points. Multifamily led all categories in foreclosure activity during the first half of 2025, though offices had dominated over the prior two years. Two-thirds of multifamily foreclosures are tied back to loans originated in 2021 and 2022, a period marked by low interest rates and higher leverage. Nearly 60% of multifamily loans maturing in the latter half of 2025 also trace to that same period, implying further potential strain ahead. Retail and hotel assets have alternated for third place since 2018, depending on prevailing market cycles.
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