The Mortgage Bankers Association expects commercial and multifamily mortgage lending to rebound in 2025, projecting a 24% year-over-year increase in total originations to $827 billion. Multifamily loans alone are forecast to rise 16% to $417 billion, leaving $410 billion in anticipated originations for non-multifamily commercial properties.
According to the MBA, the market’s momentum reflects stronger lending activity across asset types despite softening economic fundamentals. Mike Fratantoni, chief economist and senior vice president for research and business development, said in prepared remarks that the group expects the Federal Open Market Committee to continue cutting rates after making its first move in September.
“We expect additional cuts at the end of October and in December,” he said. “While inflation is still above the Fed’s target, the job market has weakened, and we expect that the FOMC will continue to focus more on its full employment goal.”
Judie Ricks, the MBA’s associate vice president of CREF research, noted that commercial real estate lending has remained resilient through the midyear period.
“The CRE lending market has remained strong with new originations increasing year-over-year during the first six months of 2025,” Ricks said.
“The multifamily market experienced similar strength in the first half of the year that is expected to continue into 2026.” She added that agency loans represented more than 40% of multifamily originations in 2024.
The MBA’s longer-term outlook calls for more moderation. By 2027, multifamily originations are projected to edge up just 1% to $422 billion, while total CRE lending is forecast to decline 6% to $781 billion, bringing non-multifamily volume down to $359 billion.
On the single-family side, the association anticipates an 8% increase in mortgage originations to $2.2 trillion in 2026. Purchase loans are estimated to grow 7.7% to $1.46 trillion, while refinance activity is projected to climb 9.2% to $737 billion. Total mortgage origination volume by loan count is expected to rise 7.6% to 5.8 million loans, up from 5.4 million in 2025.
Fratantoni also cautioned that labor market weakness could persist into next year as inflation exerts continued pressure. The Federal Reserve in September projected a 4.5% unemployment rate for 2025, rising slightly to 4.4% in 2026. The MBA’s October 19 economic forecast painted a similar picture, expecting unemployment to reach 4.6% in the fourth quarter of 2025, increase to 4.7% in the first half of 2026, and ease back to 4.6% later in the year.
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