Rents across key U.S. multifamily markets are dropping fast, as evidenced by newly released Apartments.com data showing pronounced decreases in several major cities. The research, which draws on CoStar Group’s multifamily analytics, underscores a clear rebalance driven by rapid construction and evolving supply-and-demand patterns.
While rent growth has cooled nationwide, the effect is particularly acute in markets where year-over-year income gains have begun to outpace falling rents—a dynamic creating rare windows of affordability for renters and recalibrating commercial real estate investors focused on yield and asset performance
Sun Belt, Gulf Coast Lead Declines
Sun Belt and West Coast metros rank as the hardest-hit markets, with new supply flooding local inventories and vacancy rates soaring well above historic norms. Three Gulf Coast Florida cities—Punta Gorda, Naples and Fort Myers—lead the list with some of the steepest recent rent drops.
Punta Gorda’s current average rent sank to $1,494 per month, a 6.3% decrease over the past year, while the city’s median household income rose 2.3%. The decline is rooted in a late-2023 wave of new units that sent vacancy up to 12.2%, the highest in years and kept prices at their lowest since 2019—an environment where competitive concessions are now the norm.
Naples, meanwhile, has reached a new milestone with its average rent of $1,900, down 6.1% since last year. Although local incomes posted only a 0.3% annual rise, this stable demand, coupled with historic supply delivery, has left rents and vacancy relatively steady; rental fundamentals may hold through 2026 unless construction persists at current rates.
In Fort Myers, average rent now stands at $1,514, down 5.7%. Here, a 3.34% population bump hasn't offset the surge in new construction, and the city’s vacancy rate spiked to 17.9%, more than twice the national average. Revenues and lease-up pace have remained favorable to renters, while incomes rose 2.6% year-over-year, keeping the market competitive and further pressuring owners to stabilize pricing.
Supply Shifts Bring Investor Uncertainty
Outside Florida, Boulder, Colorado, posted an average rent of $1,845, down 5.2%, while income growth was 2.5%. A recent delivery of about 800 units in late 2025 elevated local vacancies to 10.7%, prompting many operators to increase concessions. Projections point to a turnaround in rent growth by 2027 as absorption climbs and construction wanes, but near-term market softness will dominate through spring 2026.
Sherman, Texas, offered the largest income increase among these ten cities—4.5%—as its average rent dropped to $1,090 (down 4.4%). The metro is contending with almost 1,000 new units added at the close of 2024. By 2026, market conditions are expected to normalize, supported by anticipated job growth tied to new semiconductor manufacturing plants. Still, for now, high vacancy means owners are likely to keep offering leasing incentives.
Income Gains Outpace Rent Drops
In Asheville, North Carolina, the average rent fell 4.2% to $1,465, while a 3.9% income uptick expanded tenant affordability. The city continues to rebound from Hurricane Helene, with persistent vacancy rates above 14% forecast into 2026, keeping pressure squarely on asking rents amid steady new-unit deliveries.
Phoenix’s average rent now hovers at $1,294, 3.8% lower year-over-year, as median household incomes grew 2.9%. Despite notable population growth, over 40,000 new units entered the market in 2024, pushing vacancies from 10.7% to 12.4%. The pace of rent drops should slow by late 2026, as further inventory absorption and fewer new units are slated for delivery, but the city remains a buyer’s market in the near term.
Sarasota’s large construction pipeline helped reduce the average rent to $1,795, down 3.4%, while local incomes increased 3.7%. Volatility in vacancy—forecast to reach 17.1% before settling at 15.7%—means that prices may hold steady but offer limited near-term upside for operators.
Colorado Springs is another example of a market weighed down by oversupply, with rent at $1,285 (a 3.3% decrease) alongside a 3.9% boost in incomes. Population growth and healthy lease-up volume haven’t offset a surplus that’s kept rents soft, with stabilization projected as new construction tapers off into 2026.
Finally, Austin’s post-pandemic development boom contributed to a 3.1% fall in the average rent, now $1,400 per month. Median incomes rose 3.6%, while over 20,000 new units since 2024 pushed vacancy rates to 14.7%. As deliveries decline, investors should expect the lowest rents before peak moving season in summer 2026. Still, the city’s fundamentals point to protracted softness and opportunity for those patient enough to absorb near-term volatility.
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