After a period of strong multifamily development, the US rental market has begun to cool. According to Yardi Matrix’s latest survey of 140 markets, the average advertised asking rent fell $1 to $1,755 in August, slowing the year-over-year growth rate by 10 basis points to 0.7%. Still, occupancy rates held steady at 94.7% in July, unchanged from the previous year.
“The multifamily market is in a period of adjustment, but we’ve also seen certain regions show significant growth despite national cooling trends,” says Ed Del Beccaro, EVP and San Francisco Bay Area regional manager at TRI Commercial Services, Inc./CORFAC International.
Austin McWilliams, senior sales and leasing associate with First Capital Property Group/CORFAC International in Orlando, adds that the dynamic is especially visible in areas like Florida. “The core submarkets, high-income areas that are desirable and tough to build in, are still holding rents relatively well,” he says. “But in secondary and tertiary markets, concessions are creeping in and profitability can be a challenge.”
This variation also ties to employment and population trends in select areas. By recognizing how national cooling contrasts with local growth, investors can make more strategic moves in the months ahead.
Rent Growth Eases Nationally, Yet Some Local Markets Climb
Despite broader market trends, Del Beccaro notes that some areas are defying the slowdown. “San Francisco is seeing some of the highest rent growth nationally, with average rents rising significantly year over year,” he says. “Right now, it’s definitely a landlord’s market.”
Rania Lombera, director of multifamily operations for Intelica/CORFAC International in St. Louis, notes that while rent growth has slowed nationally, absorption is improving. “By mid-2025, absorption began to outpace new deliveries in many metros,” she says. She further notes how this trend is driving occupancy recovery and a return to modest positive rent growth overall.
Jobs, Population Trends Impact Local Multifamily Markets
As some areas experience a period of cooling, Del Beccaro points to economic and demographic factors as key areas to watch in the coming months. “Lower interest rates and job expansion in certain markets could help sustain the sector’s strength,” says Del Beccaro. “San Francisco, the Sunbelt, and New York, for example, are all expected to experience job growth, which will support a strong multifamily market.”
McWilliams agrees, noting that the Southeast, while going through a short-term reset, remains a long-term growth story. “Fast-growth markets like Nashville, Charlotte, and Orlando are letting affordability and rent levels realign to today’s fundamentals,” he says. “But the long-term drivers are still there, including population growth, jobs, and climate appeal.”
Del Beccaro highlights that affordability continues to be a major undercurrent in multifamily, as many renters find homeownership increasingly out of reach.
“The high cost of purchasing a home will keep many people renting,” says Del Beccaro. “This imbalance between cost and income will reinforce a solid renter base, especially in supply-constrained metros.”
Lombera echoes that outlook, projecting positive but moderate national rent growth over the next five years. She expects effective annual rent growth to average in the low-single digits at the national level, but stronger in high-demand or undersupplied metros.
As a whole, the persistent gap between supply and demand will continue to underpin market stability, especially in metros where job growth, affordability pressures, and limited development reinforce multifamily strength.
© Arc, All Rights Reserved. Request academic re-use from www.copyright.com. All other uses, submit a request to TMSalesOperations@arc-network.com. For more information visit Asset & Logo Licensing.