Payroll processing giant ADP, with the Stanford Digital Economy Lab, reported that private employers added 42,000 jobs in October, well over expectations of 22,000. While an improvement over the previous two months of weak hiring, with September seeing a revised -29,000 and August having gone from 54,000 to -3,000 — there are some major caveats.
One is that there is no federal jobs data available because of the shutdown. The second is that even if there were government data, ADP’s numbers don’t generally mirror the data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics and the Census Bureau.
“ManpowerGroup's real-time data shows both the slowdown and a more targeted shift in hiring patterns,” Ger Doyle, regional president, North America at ManpowerGroup, said in prepared remarks.
New U.S. job postings were down 25% year-over-year and hiring demand eased 5% year-to-date, “signaling a cautious market shaped by economic and political uncertainty.” U.S. employers report a +28% outlook: positive but cooler than earlier in 2025. About a third of those planning reductions cite economic challenges as the primary driver; 20% credit automation.
“The Federal Reserve will likely focus on the weakening labor market as they continue the rate-cutting cycle,” wrote Jeffrey Roach, chief economist for LPL Financial, in an emailed note.
Service-providing industries were up a net 33,000, but with a significant mix by subsectors. Trade/transportation/utilities were up 47,000 and financial activities grew by 11,000; however, information services were -17,000, professional/business services were -15,000 and leisure/hospitality were -6,000.
Goods-producing industries saw a net increase of 9,000, including 7,000 more in natural resources/mining; 5,000 more in construction; but -3,000 in manufacturing.
By regions, the big winner was the West with 40,000 more jobs, followed by 9,000 in the Midwest and 6,000 in the South. The Northeast fell by 12,000.
Job site Indeed tracks seven-day trailing indexed average job postings on its own boards. The difference at 101.7 on October 31 was significant from the 160.8 on May 23. Let's just say this is more of a Halloween trick than a treat, as that level last month was the lowest posted since February 7, 2021.
Net gains were all in large establishments, with at least 500 employees, at 73,000. Small establishments lost 10,000; medium businesses were down a net 21,000.
“It is important to recognize that there appear to be worsening outcomes for vulnerable and low-to-middle-income (LMI) households,” Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook admitted in a speech on Monday at The Brookings Institution.
“Among LMI households, we have observed large increases in delinquencies, especially last year, and there is some evidence that their spending has stagnated, in particular compared to the robust spending growth of their higher-income counterparts.”
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