Multifamily permitting has been declining nationwide since peaking at nearly 700,000 units in 2022. In 2023, roughly 600,000 units were permitted, while 2024 saw about 500,000 units permitted — levels closer to pre-pandemic norms that were relatively stable during the latter half of the 2010s, according to the National Association of Home Builders.
To better understand local market alignment with national trends, NAHB’s Multifamily Market Association Index measures how closely multifamily building permits in metro areas follow U.S. patterns. Using 2015–2024 permit data, the index creates five- and ten-year correlations for each metropolitan statistical area.
At the top of the index is Clarksville, Tennessee-Kentucky, with a correlation of 0.97, indicating powerful alignment with national multifamily permit trends. When national permit levels approached 700,000, Clarksville saw about 2,500 units permitted, reflecting a highly responsive, albeit smaller, market. Boulder, Colorado, also shows a high correlation with national trends, with permitting rising and slowing consistently alongside broader U.S. patterns. Champaign-Urbana, Illinois, a college town, mirrors national surges and declines in multifamily permitting, reflecting investor sentiment tied to its educational and research-driven rental base.
Lewiston-Auburn, Maine, a smaller New England market, tracked national permitting nearly step-for-step, suggesting that broader economic shifts outweighed local factors. Owensboro, Kentucky, similarly mirrored the U.S. curve despite its relatively small multifamily base, with the local pipeline reflecting sensitivity to the cost of capital and pandemic-driven spikes.
Columbus, Indiana, shows peaks and valleys similar to the national permit trend, with the market driven primarily by outsized macroeconomic cycles rather than unique local demand shocks. Jackson, Tennessee, exhibits multi-year cycles aligned with national events, showing reliance on broader economic fundamentals.
Lake Charles, Louisiana, closely tracks national trends, likely due to its economic exposure to broader shifts in energy and downstream industries. Logan, Utah-Idaho, experienced permit activity moving in step with national ebbs and flows, as did Portsmouth, New Hampshire-Maine, where local policy or unique demand played a lesser role in permit swings.
Conversely, some metros show little or negative correlation with national trends, often due to unique local demand drivers or structural constraints. College Station-Bryan, Texas, has the lowest MAI, with permit activity determined mainly by the university population rather than national cycles. Las Cruces, New Mexico and Yuba City, California, exhibit very limited permitting regardless of national upturns, possibly due to regulatory or demand constraints.
Napa, California, appears disconnected from national economic and housing fundamentals. At the same time, Elmira, New York, shows little local response to national construction booms, reflecting a static or shrinking local population and economy. Homosassa Springs, Florida, demonstrates muted local permitting despite national cycles, likely influenced by retiree-driven demand. Decatur, Illinois, has a minimal multifamily supply cycle, with national boom years leaving local trends essentially unchanged.
Monroe, Michigan, shows low responsiveness to national shifts, likely tied to the small scale and specific local economy. Watertown-Fort Drum, New York, experiences permit cycles out of step with the U.S., predominantly driven by military bases or unique local factors. Pine Bluff, Arkansas, has permitting activity essentially independent of the U.S. pattern, likely reflecting chronic low demand or population loss.
Across the 387 metros included in the index, the average correlation is 0.17, with 241 MSAs showing a positive correlation with national trends and 145 showing a negative correlation. Morgantown, West Virginia, registered a correlation of 0, indicating no multifamily permits issued in the past five years.
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