LeaseLock Chief Economist Greg Willett is watching the apartment market through a different lens. While investors focus on rising volumes and moderating rent growth, he’s looking at household finances—and finding signs of strain that could ripple into the multifamily sector if economic conditions worsen.
“The one that stands out to me is credit card debt,” Willett told GlobeSt.com.
“It suggests to me that there’s a small portion of the populace depending on credit cards for day-to-day expenses. Especially when we’re starting to see that delinquencies are moving up.”
Federal Reserve data shows revolving debt through commercial banks reached $1.06 trillion at the end of October 2025, up from earlier this year and edging close to the $1.08 trillion record set in November 2024. Willett said that while interpreting card data has become more complex because many consumers now favor credit or debit transactions over cash, other metrics—like the annual change rate for auto loans—point more clearly to financial stress.
“So far, we have not really seen any upward movement in delinquency for renting,” he added.
“Households tend to prioritize housing over everything else, so it’s the last place where financial stress tends to show up.” Larger property owners, he noted, have also improved screening and reduced renter fraud, leading to fewer bad risks in their portfolios.
Yet the data reveal signs of fragility among younger households.
“Where delinquencies are greatest, it’s the youngest households that are more likely to be renters,” Willett warned.
“That suggests some vulnerability building up in the housing market. I think that while we’re doing pretty well on keeping delinquencies in check of late, [but] there’s some real vulnerability there—particularly if we start getting job cuts or inflation picks up meaningfully.” He added that student debt, which continues to climb, compounds those challenges for younger renters.
Willett further cautioned that these pressures often remain hidden.
“Just running up the debt doesn’t move the credit number drastically as long as you continue to make the payments,” he said. “But it does have the question of how much you have to spend on everything else if you have to spend that much on the credit card.”
Those concerns come even as the multifamily sector posts robust investment growth. CBRE reported that apartment investment rose 7.5% year-over-year in the first nine months of 2025, evidence that the market is still attracting substantial capital.
But recent data suggests the landscape remains uneven. October brought pronounced rent declines in several major metros and CoStar has cautioned that it’s too early for investors to relax as supply growth and shifting demand continue to pressure pricing power.
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