When Washington went dark during the record-long government shutdown, so did the vital flow of U.S. economic data. Dozens of reports that investors, businesses and the Federal Reserve rely on to gauge the economy simply stopped coming. Without them, the nation’s economic decision-makers were left in what Apollo Chief Economist Torsten Sløk told The Financial Times was “a very dark and foggy place.”
The Bureau of Labor Statistics is ordinarily a steady drumbeat of economic insight, releasing the monthly Employment Situation, Consumer Price Index, Producer Price Index, Productivity and Costs and other key measures. Those updates are paired with the Bureau of Economic Analysis’s data on personal income and outlays—including the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, the PCE price index—alongside GDP growth and trade figures that track the effect of tariffs. Together, they form the foundation of countless economic models used by the Fed and by companies of every size to forecast and plan.
But in September and October, that steady rhythm stopped. The Employment Situation report never appeared, leaving analysts to piece together an incomplete picture of price trends and job gains from private estimates.
FactSet’s economist survey estimated October inflation at 0.2 percent month over month and three percent year over year—roughly matching September’s official reading. If accurate, inflation continued to run a full percentage point above the Fed’s two percent target. PriceStats, a State Street service that tracks prices from more than 1,500 retailers worldwide, reported that inflation’s upward trend slowed in October, though its numbers typically run slightly below the government’s. PriceStats pointed to higher prices for household equipment, furniture, electronics and food, driven in part by tariff effects. Payroll processor ADP’s vast store of wage and employment data offered additional clues, but even that couldn’t capture the full picture.
As Sløk and others noted, private sources can only go so far. Government agencies compile a far deeper range of information and restarting that machinery takes time. The Bureau of Labor Statistics has said it will finally release September’s delayed Employment Situation report on November 20, followed by Real Earnings data the next day. Still, it is unlikely that the Federal Open Market Committee will have complete October and November figures when it meets on December 9 and 10.
In the meantime, critical decisions can’t wait. Investors, businesses and policymakers must make their bets with partial glimpses of reality—raising the odds that, in a data fog, even the most seasoned players make the wrong call.
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