As Texas apartment supply volumes begin to fade, the narrative of chronic oversupply may soon give way to a more balanced market — assuming renter demand remains steady, according to a RealPage analysis.
After several years of elevated construction, completions in 2026 are projected to come down from recent peaks. In the first three quarters of next year, deliveries are expected to average about 11,700 units per quarter, roughly half the quarterly volume Texas averaged through much of 2024 and 2025.
The state’s high levels of new inventory have pressured occupancy rates, particularly for properties still in lease-up. Lease-up occupancy in many Texas markets remains notably below stabilized figures, which RealPage said is not a sign of weak demand but a reflection of the sheer volume of new supply hitting the market. Markets that have absorbed the largest volumes continue to feel substantial lease-up pressures, the report noted.
Data from RealPage highlights the gap between lease-up and stabilized occupancy across Texas metros. High-supply markets such as Austin, San Antonio, Houston, Dallas and Fort Worth show lease-up occupancy one to 1.2 percentage points below stabilized rates, illustrating the impact of heavy new construction. In contrast, smaller or slower-growing markets like Lubbock, College Station, Midland, El Paso and McAllen show minimal differences, as new supply pressures remain modest.
The projected slowdown in completions suggests that markets facing lease-up challenges may begin to stabilize. As the pace of new supply eases, occupancy and leasing performance in high-volume metros could improve, potentially shifting the market toward a more balanced supply-demand environment, according to RealPage.
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