Payroll processor giant ADP and the Stanford Digital Economy Lab have released their version of November’s monthly job numbers, which came as a surprise to Wall Street. The median Dow Jones poll of economists called for a 40,000 gain, down from October’s +47,000. Instead, the result was a loss of 32,000 private sector jobs.
“Hiring has been choppy of late as employers weather cautious consumers and an uncertain macroeconomic environment,” said ADP Chief Economist Dr. Nela Richardson in a statement. “And while November's slowdown was broad-based, it was led by a pullback among small businesses.”
There was a wide gulf between companies with one to 49 employees, which saw a net collective loss of 120,000 jobs, and mid-sized and large firms, which gained 90,000, according to ADP’s published figures.
The biggest losses were in manufacturing (-18,000), information services (-20,000), professional/business services (-26,000) and financial activities (-9,000).
The big geographic losers were the Northeast (-100,000) and South (-43,000). But a couple of regions won: the West with +67,000 and the Midwest gained +45,000.
It’s bad news for the economy, but a potential positive if you put stock in a Federal Reserve rate cut. CME Group’s FedWatch tool sees an 89.0% chance of a 25-basis-point reduction given current implications of 30-day Fed Funds futures prices; expectations of keeping rates where they are sitting at 11.0%, as of Wednesday. On November 19, the picture was inverted, with 30% expecting a quarter-point cut and 70% thinking the Fed would stand pat.
That said, the disruption in the federal government due to the shutdown has delayed key economic data. The Bureau of Economic Analysis, which provides the Personal Income and Outlays reports, the Fed’s preferred inflation measure, says the September numbers will be out on December 5, before the FOMC meeting. There is no scheduled October report at this point. The November report won’t be out until December 19, well after the meeting.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics recently published the September Consumer Price Index report, as it was needed by the Social Security Administration to set cost-of-living adjustments. The October report has been cancelled, and the November 2025 CPI comes out on December 18, again, after the FOMC meeting. The October jobs report is cancelled, with November’s scheduled for release on Friday, December 5.
With major reports going missing, all non-government data gets extra currency. That’s led in part to deep divisions at the central bank.
“The ADP report shows the job market is losing more momentum at year-end and skews risks toward modestly higher unemployment early next year,” Nationwide Financial Markets Economist Oren Klachkin wrote in a statement.
“There’s a high level of disagreement among Fed policymakers right now, but we maintain our call [that] the doves will prevail over the hawks and the FOMC to vote for another 25 [basis points] interest rate reduction at next week’s meeting.”
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