Early data from this year’s holiday shopping season indicates that retail sales are on track to meet the National Retail Federation’s (NRF) spending forecasts, with strong year-over-year growth for November, according to the CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor.
Month-over-month shopping was largely flat, rising just 0.12%, while year-over-year sales increased 4.53% in November, compared with a 0.6% month-over-month gain and 5% year-over-year growth in October.
“Shoppers looking for online deals may have held back a bit until Cyber Monday, which landed in December due to a late Thanksgiving, likely shifting some spending,” said NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay. “Consumers are focusing on value and spending carefully during the holiday period, and retailers are offering products at competitive prices to fit every budget.”
NRF projects that holiday sales from November 1 through December 31, 2025, will increase by 3.7% to 4.2% over 2024, pushing total spending to just over $1 trillion. For the entire year, retail sales are expected to rise between 2.7% and 3.7% over 2024, reaching as much as $5.48 trillion.
Looking at category performance, November sales were up year over year in all but one sector, with digital products, sporting goods, and clothing stores leading the gains. Digital products, including e-books and games, rose 14.8% compared with last year, despite a slight 0.37% month-over-month decline. Sporting goods, hobby, music, and book stores posted 8.96% year-over-year growth, along with a modest 0.28% month-over-month increase. Clothing and accessories stores were up 8.16% year over year but edged down 0.04% from October.
Other retail sectors showed more mixed results, reflecting the season’s early timing and shifting consumer behavior. Grocery and beverage stores increased 3.89% year over year, with a 0.74% month-over-month gain. General merchandise stores rose 3.1% from last year but fell 0.73% compared with October. Health and personal care stores were up 1.31% year over year despite a 0.19% monthly decline. Electronics and appliance stores grew 1.01% annually but dropped 2.94% month over month. Furniture and home furnishings posted modest increases of 0.53% year over year and 0.01% month over month, while building and garden supply stores were the only sector to decline on both measures, falling 9.38% year over year and 1.74% month over month.
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