U.S. industrial demand has come off its pandemic-era boil, but Colliers’ latest look at the 25 “markets that move America” shows the sector settling into a more disciplined, durable cycle led by a handful of logistics hubs that still dominate supply, demand and pricing power. These 25 metros account for roughly three-quarters of the nation’s tracked industrial base and nearly two-thirds of new supply and the construction pipeline, meaning their behavior is increasingly synonymous with the national market.
National Trends Frame the Top 25
Across the U.S., industrial vacancy has risen to 7.4%, up 71 basis points year-over-year, while the top 25 markets remain slightly tighter at 7.2%, with vacancy increases moderating as construction slows. New supply over the past four quarters fell 41% nationally to 285.3 million square feet, with the top 25 contributing 192.1 million square feet, also a 41% drop, underscoring a broad pullback in speculative deliveries.
Net absorption totaled about 171 million square feet nationally over the past year, essentially flat year-over-year, while the top 25 posted 110.4 million square feet, a 4.6% increase that signals demand is stabilizing first in the largest hubs. Warehouse/distribution asking rents rose 1.9% nationally to $10.35 per square foot, but rents in the top 25 held nearly flat at $9.32, with coastal port markets still commanding the highest rates.
Coastal Gateways Still Set the Pace
Greater Los Angeles remains the largest industrial market with roughly 1.75 billion square feet of inventory, adding 17.7 million square feet over the past year while delivering 2.7 million square feet of net absorption and holding vacancy to 5.7%. Asking warehouse/distribution rents there sit just under 15 dollars per square foot, down sharply year-over-year, yet still among the highest in the country as occupiers recalibrate after an earlier spike.
The New York City metro, with about 894 million square feet of inventory, recorded 7.7 million square feet of new supply and 6.8 million square feet of net absorption over the past four quarters, leaving vacancy at 6.7%. It's $16.78 per square foot warehouse/distribution rent is the highest among the top 25, reflecting enduring barriers to entry and deep last‑mile demand even as rent growth has cooled.
On the West Coast, the San Francisco Bay Area and Seattle–Puget Sound continue to command double‑digit rents—roughly $14.78 and $12.21 per square foot, respectively—while working through higher vacancies of 8.6% and 8.9%. Both markets have modest construction pipelines relative to inventory, but recent negative or minimal net absorption shows how tech and trade headwinds are translating into a slower leasing backdrop.
Chicago, Dallas–Fort Worth and the Inland Giants
Chicago, the second-largest U.S. industrial market at about 1.56 billion square feet, delivered 11.8 million square feet of new space and absorbed 15 million square feet over the past year, keeping vacancy at a low 4.6%. Despite a notable year-over-year drop in net absorption, the market’s $8.14 per square foot rent and a supply-demand balance underscore its role as a steady, diversified Midwest logistics anchor.
Dallas–Fort Worth is now the country’s leading demand and construction story, with 1.12 billion square feet of inventory, 18.5 million square feet of recent deliveries and 19.6 million square feet of net absorption in the past four quarters. Its 31.3 million square feet under construction—about 2.8% of inventory—is the largest pipeline in the nation, while vacancy at 9.3% and asking rents around $9.33 per square foot reflect a market digesting supply but still capturing outsized tenant growth.
Atlanta, with 926.7 million square feet of inventory, brought 18.1 million square feet of new product online and absorbed just under 3 million square feet, pushing vacancy to 9.4%. With warehouse/distribution rents at $8.57 per square foot and construction moderating, the market is transitioning from a development-led expansion to a more demand-driven phase.
Energy, Ports and the Sun Belt
Houston’s industrial base now totals roughly 792.6 million square feet, after 16.1 million square feet of new supply and 10.2 million square feet of net absorption over the past year, resulting in a 7.3% vacancy rate. Its construction pipeline of about 21.8 million square feet and asking rents of $9.59 per square foot highlight the interplay of port activity, energy, and population growth in sustaining demand.
In Florida, West‑Central Florida and South Florida illustrate a split between growth-pricing and scarcity-pricing. West‑Central Florida, with just over 602 million square feet of inventory, added 10.4 million square feet of new supply and absorbed 6.3 million square feet, pushing vacancy to 8.1% and supporting rents of $10.78 per square foot.
South Florida, by contrast, has a smaller base of 443.7 million square feet and delivered only 5.1 million square feet of new product over the past year, with net absorption of about 3 million square feet and vacancy of 6.6%. Limited land and strong port and population fundamentals keep rents at $16.59 per square foot, second only to New York among the top 25.
Phoenix and the Growth‑to‑Equilibrium Story
Phoenix is the clearest example of the national shift from hyper‑growth to normalization, with 456.2 million square feet of inventory and the fastest inventory growth among the top 25 at 4.9% year-over-year. The market delivered 21.3 million square feet of new space over the past four quarters—more than any other metro—and absorbed 18.5 million square feet, leaving vacancy at 11.5%, down from a recent peak.
Construction in Phoenix has been sharply reined in, with the pipeline falling from 26.2 million square feet a year ago to 11.4 million square feet currently. However, that still represents more than 2% of inventory under construction. Warehouse/distribution rents around $12.41 per square foot, combined with easing vacancy, suggest the market is moving toward a healthier balance after an aggressive development run.
Midwest Resilience and Cost‑Driven Demand
Detroit’s 649.8 million‑square‑foot industrial market added less than 1 million square feet of new supply over the past year yet recorded 2.9 million square feet of net absorption, keeping vacancy near 5%. With a modest 2.63 million square feet under construction and rents around $7 per square foot, the market is quietly benefiting from manufacturing and automotive-related demand without the overbuilding seen elsewhere.
Minneapolis–St. Paul, at nearly 410 million square feet of inventory, delivered 2.2 million square feet of new product and absorbed 3 million square feet over the past four quarters, driving vacancy down to 4.4%. With just under 2.85 million square feet under construction and rents of $7.83 per square foot, it represents the kind of steady, infill‑heavy market that is rebalancing quickly as national construction slows.
Cleveland and Cincinnati, with 364.8 million and 292.2 million square feet of inventory, respectively, also exhibit relatively disciplined supply. Cleveland added only about 196,000 square feet of new space and absorbed nearly 1.7 million square feet, maintaining a 4.6% vacancy rate and $4.84 rents. In comparison, Cincinnati’s 2.1 million square feet of new supply and 2 million square feet of net absorption left vacancy at 5.6% and rents at $5.66.
Columbus, Indianapolis and Kansas City Punch Above Their Weight
Columbus has emerged as a high‑growth logistics node, with 362.9 million square feet of inventory, 4.9 million square feet of new supply and 4.5 million square feet of net absorption in the past year. Vacancy stands at 7.8%, but the market leads the top 25 in rent growth, with warehouse/distribution rates up 16.3% year-over-year to $7.30 per square foot, signaling strong occupier appetite along key interstate corridors.
Indianapolis, with 356 million square feet of space, added 3.9 million square feet of new stock while absorbing 9.8 million square feet, bringing vacancy down from a double‑digit peak to 9.3%. Its construction pipeline of 2.48 million square feet and asking rents of $6.06 per square foot underscore a market where demand is currently outrunning development.
Kansas City’s 308.3 million‑square‑foot industrial base grew by 7.7 million square feet of new supply and 9.3 million square feet of net absorption over the past four quarters, pushing vacancy to a relatively low 5.7%. With 4.05 million square feet under construction and rents of $5.45 per square foot, it remains a cost‑effective alternative, capturing regional and national distribution mandates.
Secondary Logistics Hubs and Steady Performers
Charlotte’s 397.3 million‑square‑foot market added 5.2 million square feet of new product and absorbed 5.9 million square feet, keeping vacancy at 8.1% while supporting rents of $9.15 per square foot. Its construction pipeline of 4.42 million square feet and positive rent growth point to continued interest from occupiers seeking Southeast connectivity without coastal pricing.
Denver, at 289.9 million square feet of inventory, delivered just over 4 million square feet and absorbed 4.86 million square feet over the past year, resulting in 9.3% vacancy and rents of $7.01 per square foot. With 3.12 million square feet under construction, Denver is maintaining a measured pipeline while benefiting from regional population and consumption growth.
Milwaukee and St. Louis, with inventories of roughly 291.4 million and 281.8 million square feet, both saw modest construction and positive net absorption, leaving vacancies at 7.4% and 5.5%. Rents of $6.10 per square foot in Milwaukee and $5.83 in St. Louis reinforce their role as functional, cost‑efficient nodes rather than pricing leaders.
Markets Working Through Softness
Memphis, with 306 million square feet of inventory, is one of the more challenged markets in the cohort, delivering 1.34 million square feet of new supply and absorbing about 689,000 square feet. Vacancy has climbed to 10.3%, the second‑highest among the top 25, while rents of $4.27 per square foot remain among the lowest, illustrating how elevated availability is limiting pricing power.
Portland’s 271.2 million‑square‑foot market added 2.7 million square feet of new space and absorbed a similar 2.63 million square feet, resulting in a 6.9% vacancy rate. With 2.63 million square feet under construction and rents at $11.36 per square foot, Portland is balancing relatively high rents with more cautious development amid softer demand.
Seattle–Puget Sound, with 341.2 million square feet of inventory, delivered 3.85 million square feet and absorbed just over 530,000 square feet, pushing vacancy to 8.9%. Asking rents at $12.21 per square foot remain elevated, but the market’s recent negative absorption trend underscores the impact of slowing trade flows and tech‑related logistics demand.
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