For investors scanning for late‑cycle signals, Realtor’s November 2025 rental report delivers a striking juxtaposition: rents in the 50 largest U.S. metros have declined year-over-year for 28 straight months, yet a typical two‑earner household making minimum wage can still reasonably afford the median 0‑ to 2‑bedroom unit in only five of those markets.
The data points to a market where nominal rent growth has cooled, but income constraints and wage policy keep affordability under intense pressure in much of the country.
National Rent Levels And Unit Mix
Realtor reports that the median asking rent for 0‑to 2‑bedroom units across the top 50 metros fell to $1,693 in November, down $6 from October and $17 or 1%, from a year earlier. That level is 2.4% below the November 2022 peak of $1,735, but still 17.2% above November 2019’s $1,445 benchmark, underscoring that recent softness follows a steep post‑pandemic run‑up rather than a full reset in pricing. The firm characterizes affordability as “the key theme of the housing market in 2025,” framing current rent declines as modest relief against a still‑elevated baseline.
By unit type, the report shows broad but uneven softness. Nationally, studios posted a median rent of $1,418 in November, down 0.4% year-over-year and 3.7% below November 2022, yet still 12.2% above the pre‑pandemic 2019 level. One‑bedroom units averaged $1,572, off 1% from a year earlier and 3.3% below 2022, while two‑bedroom units averaged $1,874, down 1.1% on the year but 19.3% above 2019, reflecting how larger floor plans captured more of the pandemic‑era price escalation.
Realtor notes that studio rents, with 27 consecutive months of annual declines, appear closest to stabilizing, interpreting near‑flat year‑over‑year growth as evidence that some renters are leaving shared or family living arrangements to form new households.
How Realtor Measures Minimum-Wage Affordability
The core of the report, however, is an affordability exercise that compares metro‑level minimum wages to median asking rents. Using a standard 30% rent‑to‑income threshold, Realtor calculates how many hours per week each of two minimum‑wage earners would need to work to afford the median 0‑to-2‑bedroom rental in their metro.
On that metric, only Buffalo‑Cheektowaga, Rochester, St. Louis, Phoenix and Kansas City clear the 40‑hour benchmark at current 2025 wage levels and November rent levels, with a two‑earner household able to cover the median unit without overtime.
In Buffalo‑Cheektowaga, the median November rent stands at $1,176, paired with a $15.50 hourly minimum wage and a required 30 hours per week per renter to meet the affordability threshold. Rochester, also at a $15.50 minimum wage, shows a median rent of $1,339 and a required 35 hours per week. St. Louis posts a $1,305 median and $13.75 wage, implying 38 hours. Phoenix, at $1,445 and $14.70, requires 39 hours, while Kansas City, with a median rent of $ 1,387 and a minimum wage of $13.75, requires 40 hours.
Realtor notes that all five share two traits: median rent below the national average and minimum wages set above the $7.25 federal floor.
Markets Poised To Cross Into Affordability
The report flags two additional metros poised to cross into “affordable at 40 hours” territory once 2026 wage hikes take effect. Detroit‑Warren‑Dearborn, with a $1,327 median rent, will see its minimum wage rise from $10.56 to $13.73, cutting required hours from 51 in 2024 and 50 in 2025 to 39 in 2026, a 12‑hour drop year-over-year. Jacksonville, where the median rent is $1,457, will move from a $13 to $15 minimum wage, reducing required hours per earner from 45 to 39.
“The new year will usher in many increases to state and local minimum wages across the United States,” Realtor notes, pointing also to Miami, Tampa, and Orlando as Florida metros where 2026 wage hikes will trim required hours but not necessarily deliver full affordability at standard full‑time schedules.
Florida Metros Underscore Limits Of Wage Policy
Miami‑Fort Lauderdale‑West Palm Beach illustrates the limits of wage policy when rent levels remain high. The metro’s median rent is $2,287; its minimum wage will climb from $13 to $15 in 2026, cutting the required weekly hours per worker from 70 in 2025 to 61 in 2026, still well above a conventional 40‑hour workweek. Tampa’s $1,672 and Orlando’s $1,650 will require 45 and 44 hours, respectively, after Florida’s minimum wage increase to $15, down from 51 and 51 hours in 2025 but still in overtime territory.
Where Minimum-Wage Renters Face Longest Weeks
At the other end, Realtor highlights the 10 metros where minimum‑wage earners must work the longest weeks to afford the median unit in 2026. Philadelphia‑Camden‑Wilmington tops the list: with a $1,739 median rent and a $7.25 minimum wage, a two‑earner household would need each worker to work 96 hours per week to meet the 30% income threshold. Milwaukee‑Waukesha follows at 93 hours on a $1,685 and the same $7.25 minimum, reflecting the impact of 4.5% year‑over‑year rent growth layered on top of an unchanged wage floor.
The rest of the least‑affordable list is dominated by Sun Belt and Mid‑Atlantic metros, where statutory wages remain anchored to the federal minimum. At the same time, rents sit near or above the national average. Atlanta‑Sandy Springs‑Roswell requires 85 hours per worker to cover a $1,543 median rent in 2026, essentially flat from 85 hours in 2025 despite a 2.3% decline in rents over the year. Nashville‑Davidson–Murfreesboro–Franklin and Charlotte‑Concord‑Gastonia each require 83 hours to meet payments of $1,511 and $1,498, respectively.
Raleigh‑Cary stands at 82 hours on $1,478; Pittsburgh requires 81 hours on $1,471 and Dallas‑Fort Worth‑Arlington and Austin‑Round Rock‑San Marcos stand at 80 and 77 hours, respectively, on $1,441 and $1,388. Only Philadelphia and San Jose among this group have median rents above the national average; the rest are driven primarily by very low statutory wage floors.
San Jose’s High-Wage, High-Rent Outlier Status
San Jose‑Sunnyvale‑Santa Clara is the outlier in this least‑affordable set, with a much higher minimum wage but still extraordinary rent levels. Realtor reports a $3,363 median November rent on a 2026 minimum wage of $16.90 translates to needing to work 80 hours per week per worker for two minimum‑wage earners to afford the median unit. The report notes that “in San Jose proper, the minimum wage is nearly binding,” with fast‑food workers facing a sector‑specific $20 minimum yet still needing 67 hours each to meet the affordability test at the metro’s median rent.
A Deeper Metro-By-Metro Map
Beyond the extremes, Realtor’s stats offer a more nuanced map of rent and wage dynamics across the top 50 metros, including some where rent growth has turned negative while wage policy stands still.
In Austin‑Round Rock‑San Marcos, the median rent fell 6.6% year-over-year to $1,388, yet a static $7.25 minimum wage leaves required hours unchanged at 77 from 2025 to 2026 after only modest improvement from 82 in 2024. Dallas‑Fort Worth‑Arlington, with a $1,441 median and a 1.9% year‑over‑year rent decline, still requires 80 hours per earner in both 2025 and 2026.
Other large markets show rising rent burdens in the absence of wage changes. Milwaukee‑Waukesha’s median rent rose 4.5% to $1,685, with required minimum‑wage hours increasing from 89 in 2024 to 93 in both 2025 and 2026. Pittsburgh’s $1,471 median, up 2.7%, pushes required hours from 79 in 2024 to 81 in 2025 and 2026.
In Virginia Beach‑Chesapeake‑Norfolk, a 2.7% rent gain to $1,609 nudges necessary hours from 50 in 2024 to 52 in 2025, then back to 50 in 2026, illustrating how small nominal shifts interact with a constant wage floor.
Coastal Gateways: High Rents, Higher Floors
Coastal gateway markets continue to post some of the highest absolute rent levels, but do not always produce the longest required workweeks due to higher state and local minimum wages. New York‑Newark‑Jersey City’s median rent is flat year-over-year at $2,898, with required minimum‑wage hours dipping from 70 in 2024 and 2025 to 68 in 2026 under state‑level wage adjustments. In Los Angeles‑Long Beach‑Anaheim, the median fell 2% to $2,776 and required hours improved from 69 in 2024 to 67 in 2025 and 66 in 2026, supported by California’s higher wage floors.
San Diego‑Chula Vista‑Carlsbad, with a $2,688 median and a 3.5% annual rent decline, shows required hours easing from 67 in 2024 to 65 in 2025 and 64 in 2026, while San Francisco‑Oakland‑Fremont, at $2,819 and positive 1.4% rent growth, moves from 67 to 68 and back to 67 hours over the three years.
Interior And Secondary Markets With Relatively Favorable Profiles
Several interior and secondary markets combine moderate rent levels with higher minimum wages, producing more favorable metrics than their coastal peers despite higher relative rent growth. Portland‑Vancouver‑Hillsboro posts a $1,641 median rent, down 2.6% year over year, and holds required minimum‑wage hours at 42 in 2024 and 41 in both 2025 and 2026. Denver‑Aurora‑Centennial’s $1,742 median, down 4.8%, corresponds to 49, 47 and 46 hours across 2024, 2025, and 2026. Minneapolis‑St. Paul‑Bloomington, with a $1,503 median and a 0.9% rent decline, improves from 55 to 54 to 53 hours over the same period.
Midwest And Southern Markets With Low Rents But Stubborn Burdens
Realtor also captures several Midwest and Southern markets where relatively low headline rents do not translate to straightforward affordability under minimum‑wage assumptions. In Indianapolis‑Carmel‑Greenwood, the November median rent is $1,288, with almost flat year‑over‑year growth, but required hours are 71 in 2024, 2025 and 2026 due to a minimum wage that remains at or near the federal level.
Birmingham’s rent fell 4.6% to $1,180, yet required hours remain elevated at 68 in 2024 and 65 in both 2025 and 2026. Louisville/Jefferson County, with a $1,244 median and a 2.4% decline, still requires 70 hours in 2024 and 69 in both 2025 and 2026.
Sun Belt Variations In Rent And Wage Trajectories
Sun Belt markets show a mix of outcomes, reflecting differences in wage policy and rent trajectories. In Houston‑Pasadena‑The Woodlands, the median rent fell 2.7% to $1,369, but required hours only edged down from 78 in 2024 to 76 in 2025 and 2026.
San Antonio‑New Braunfels records a $1,207 median with a 2.7% decline and hours of 68, 67 and 67 across the three years.
Orlando‑Kissimmee‑Sanford, by contrast, sees required hours fall more sharply—from 52 in 2024 to 51 in 2025 and 44 in 2026—once Florida’s minimum‑wage increase to $15 per hour takes effect against a $1,650 median rent that has declined 1.8% year-over-year.
Mid-Atlantic And Northeast Pressures
In the Mid‑Atlantic and Northeast, results range from relatively balanced to severely stretched. Baltimore‑Columbia‑Towson’s median rent rose 2.4% to $1,856, nudging required hours from 48 in 2024 to 49 in both 2025 and 2026. Hartford‑West Hartford‑East Hartford, with a $1,836 median and 3.6% rent growth, shifts from 43 required hours in 2024 to 45 in 2025, then back to 43 in 2026, reflecting state wage adjustments. Philadelphia, by contrast, remains at the extreme, with a $1,739 median rent, a 1.5% annual decline and required minimum‑wage hours essentially unchanged at 97, 96 and 96 from 2024 through 2026, given an unaltered $7.25 statutory floor.
High-Rent, High-Wage Anchors In Washington And Seattle
Washington‑Arlington‑Alexandria presents an example of a high‑rent, elevated‑income market that still leaves minimum‑wage earners well short of conventional affordability despite moderate metrics by national standards. The metro’s median rent is $2,264, up 0.5% year-over-year, with required hours at 51 in 2024 and 52 in both 2025 and 2026.
Seattle‑Tacoma‑Bellevue, where the median rent is $1,942 and is down 0.7%, sees required hours hold at 47 in 2024 and 2025, then fall to 45 in 2026.
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