Apartment rent growth is expected to accelerate nationwide in 2026, though the pace is likely to be gradual and uneven, according to the 2026 Trends White Paper from Apartments.com. The rebound follows several months of downward revisions, with quarterly performance falling short of expectations despite a narrowing supply-demand gap.
While rent growth has hovered around 1% this year, CoStar predicts it will rise modestly to 1.9% by next year, well below the 9.4% peak seen in 2022. The market continues to absorb a record wave of new supply, and vacancy rates are expected to remain above 10% in the luxury segment.
As the market reaches a turning point, fewer metros will remain in negative territory, though performance is expected to vary regionally. The Sun Belt is projected to lag, while the Midwest and Northeast are set to outperform.
Among top-performing markets, San Jose and San Francisco — both high-priced metros with constrained supply — are expected to lead in rent growth, with 4.3% and 4.2%, respectively. Growth is being driven by strong demand from employers mandating in-office work, as well as heightened demand for talent in AI-related sectors. Norfolk, Virginia, rounds out the top three with projected growth of 4.2%.
Other cities poised for strong growth include Chicago, Indianapolis, Philadelphia and Seattle, with rents projected to rise between 3% and 3.4%. Denver, Minneapolis, and Portland are expected to post slightly lower, but still healthy, increases between 2.7% and 2.8%.
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