Key signs are emerging that CRE is on the verge of a recovery with a more active 2026 in sight, according to LightBox’s CRE Activity Index for November. Even though the index was lower than in October, LightBox maintains it “continues to signal a market cooling, not retrenching.”
The index is a composite of 30,000 data points that reflect CRE listings, lender appraisals and environmental due diligence and is said to offer an early read on market momentum. In November, it registered 99.4 -- below the 106.2 it scored in October and its lowest level since January 2025. Nevertheless, LightBox noted this was less than its historical 14% drop at this time of year.
“November’s dip is more about seasonality than stress,” commented Manus Clancy, head of data strategy. “With activity still well above last year's levels, the Index points to market moving ahead with measured confidence."
Even though the average daily number of commercial listings fell 16% month-over-month, the report said levels remained 37% higher than in 2024, signaling sellers’ confidence as prices stabilize.
There were also indications of early-stage deal preparation as Phase 1 ESA (Environmental Site Assessments) climbed 1% from October and 12% year-over-year.
In addition, there was a 5% month-over-month and 7% year-over-year increase in lender-driven appraisals, part of 11 months of “remarkable stability.”
Credit availability continued to improve among banks, insurers, debt funds and CMBS providers. Lower Treasury yields encouraged refinancing pipelines late in the month. Public sector activity also rebounded while investor engagement remained broad-based across industrial, multifamily, data centers and select retail segments.
LightBox downplayed mixed macro signals, such as weaker labor metrics and investor uncertainty, noting that the index’s 99.4 score was well above the 83.3 recorded during the election-related slowdown in 2024.
“The CRE market is transitioning from volatility to a more orderly environment," said Dianne Crocker, research director.
“The signs point to a market about to enter 2026 on firmer footing based on strong liquidity and improving prospects for dealmaking. Market components reflect recalibration rather than contraction."
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