Home sales are expected to finish the year slightly ahead of a weak 2024 and could rise 4.3% in 2026 if mortgage rates continue to trend lower, according to Zillow’s November housing report. Buyers and sellers were more active than usual in September and October as lower mortgage rates encouraged hesitant homeowners and shoppers to enter the market.
By November, the market returned to more typical seasonal patterns. With seller price cuts normalizing, the market is shifting toward a neutral stance after buyers held more substantial leverage earlier in the year. In October, nearly 27% of listings saw price reductions; in November, that figure fell to 21.2%, Zillow reports, signaling that sellers are regaining some footing.
New listings also slowed sharply, falling nearly 30% month-over-month in November. This reversed the annual growth seen in October, when new listings were up 5.1% year-over-year, leaving November with a 4.4% yearly decline. Zillow says homeowners without an urgent need to sell are likely waiting out the winter, hoping for better spring pricing.
The strongest seller markets continue to be San Jose, Hartford, San Francisco, New York and Richmond, where demand remains high and inventory is tight. Buyers, meanwhile, have the advantage in markets like Louisville, Indianapolis, Miami, Milwaukee and Pittsburgh, which offer more options and softer pricing.
The typical U.S. home value is now $360,782. Assuming a 20% down payment, the typical monthly mortgage is $1,767, down 5.6% or $105 from last year but still nearly double pre-pandemic levels, according to Zillow.
Month-over-month, values increased in only one of the 50 largest metros: San Jose, by 0.1%. Values stayed flat in New York, while Birmingham, Oklahoma City and Memphis all fell by 0.1%. The largest monthly drops occurred in Austin (-1%), Denver (-0.7%), Dallas (-0.7%), Atlanta (-0.6%) and Raleigh (-0.6%).
Over the past year, home values rose in half of the 50 largest metro areas, with the strongest annual gains in Hartford, Cleveland, Milwaukee, Buffalo and Chicago. Meanwhile, 24 major metros saw declines, led by Austin, Tampa, Miami, Orlando and Dallas, according to Zillow’s data.
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