Amid lofty promises to rebuild America’s industrial base, new data suggest the manufacturing boom may be more modest than the headlines imply. A fresh analysis from Savills examines the widening gap “between rhetoric and reality,” finding what it calls “both progress and pullback” in the nation’s reshoring efforts.
Savills began with the White House’s running list of new manufacturing investment commitments for 2025—figures touted in the trillions of dollars—but found that many announcements lacked crucial details such as defined sites or timelines. In contrast, the firm only counted projects tied to specific locations and tracked them from announcement to completion, including whether they advanced, stalled or were canceled. By that measure, “total capital investment from the past year’s megaprojects reached $42.2 billion,” Savills reported—“an impressive figure but far short of the White House’s tally.”
Regional data show the U.S. manufacturing map continues to tilt south. The Sun Belt, Southeast and Mid-South remain at the center of activity, driven by lower costs, available land, strong infrastructure, and skilled workforces. While the Midwest still benefits from its legacy industrial base, much of the new momentum is flowing toward southern states, where tax, financial and other incentive packages remain powerful draws.
Those incentives are often tied to job promises, though many have yet to materialize. Between 2021 and 2025, Georgia, Texas, North Carolina, Arizona, Tennessee, Ohio, New York, South Carolina and Kentucky led the nation in announced manufacturing jobs. Texas boasts the highest completion rate, but even there, fewer than half of announced positions have been delivered. Georgia, Arizona, Tennessee, North Carolina, South Carolina, New York, Kentucky and Ohio trail closely behind in completions.
By industry sector, job announcements are split roughly 49% aerospace and defense, 26% other manufacturing, 16% grid and energy, and 9% digital infrastructure. Announcement totals climbed over the past year, with 53,416 new manufacturing jobs announced between November 2024 and November 2025, compared with 30,854 a year earlier. Still, that figure remains 15.4% below the five-year average and less than half the 2022 peak. Project delays are also rising—Savills found that between January 2024 and January 2025, a record 21,870 jobs were put on hold or canceled.
Federal tax policy has added new complexity. Under the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, manufacturers gained 100% rapid depreciation for new equipment and facilities, $150 billion in new defense funding and a 35% investment tax credit for semiconductors. However, the law also phased out the $7,500 electric vehicle tax credit and the 30% solar credit—cuts that have drawn particular notice among commercial real estate developers.
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