After months of mounting concern over commercial mortgage-backed securities, a growing number of analysts say the stress is no longer confined to struggling office properties. Multifamily and industrial assets may soon join the list of at-risk sectors as higher costs, softening demand and excess supply weigh on performance heading into 2026.
"Overall CMBS asset performance will remain 'deteriorating' in 2026 as office delinquencies peak, consumer confidence and spending wane, demand softens and higher capex and operating expenses weigh on office, hotel, and retail segments," wrote Will Rossiter, a director at Fitch Ratings, in December 2025.
Mark Silverman, a partner at Troutman Pepper Locke and leader of the firm's CMBS practice, tells GlobeSt.com he's seeing similar stress patterns across multiple property types. His "risk trifecta," as he calls it, includes industrial, multifamily, and office—each facing a distinct set of challenges, with higher interest rates amplifying exposure across the board.
"I'm keeping industrial on my very short list of things that concern me," Silverman said.
"It's not blinking on radar screens everywhere, but if you dig deep into the data, I think you'll see there are cracks starting to form there."
The industrial surge that followed the pandemic—fueled by e-commerce growth and supply chain rebuilding—led to rapid construction of warehouses and logistics hubs.
That wave may now be cresting.
"We've seen an oversupply of 3PLs [third-party logistics companies], trucking companies," CoStar National Director of U.S. Industrial Analytics Juan Arias recently told GlobeSt.com.
"We've seen a lot of 3PLs and trucking companies go bankrupt."
Arias expects that trend to continue through 2026, pushing vacancies higher and eroding net operating income—both warning signs for CMBS investors.
Multifamily properties occupy the second slot on Silverman's list. After two years of record construction, markets in parts of the Sun Belt and West now face more inventory than demand can absorb.
"I think we're going to see an uptick in management and deferred maintenance," Silverman says. "In markets where there are current multifamily issues, a lot of it is prior management issues and deferred maintenance — issues in the management of these properties."
Office risk, meanwhile, shows no sign of abating. Stagnant rents and steep renovation costs continue to challenge owners, particularly in aging Class B and C buildings that lag behind the sought-after Class A and Trophy spaces benefiting from the "flight to quality."
Looking further into 2026, Silverman suggests hotels could be the next sector to watch.
"If you look at consumer debt, everything you read about this, I think the American public is having a hard time keeping up," he says. "Discretionary travel is something easy for most people to cut and business travel is still down."
In the current environment, lenders want more than promises. "Lenders are really looking for value-add workouts," Silverman says.
"The days of lenders just extending-and-pretending are gone. Borrowers need to come to the table with solutions and show they want to work collaboratively. Borrowers need to be much more communicative and much more creative with the solutions they propose." Simply asking for more time, he adds, may no longer be an option.
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