U.S. commercial property values are starting 2026 much as they spent most of 2025: edging higher over the year but barely moving month-to-month, according to new figures from Green Street's Commercial Property Price Index. The firm's all-property index was unchanged in January and is up 2.4% over the past 12 months, leaving values about 16% below their 2022 peak.
The current backdrop resembles last year, with cap rates largely range-bound and values "quietly" drifting higher, according to Peter Rothemund, co-head of strategic research at Green Street. He noted that commercial real estate appears fairly valued relative to corporate bonds and argued that, without a clear downward move in interest rates, "meaningful" price appreciation is unlikely.
Where the Market Stands Now
Green Street pegs the all-property CPPI at 130.3, an aggregate level that reflects the firm's asset value-weighted mix of sectors, including retail, apartments, health care, industrial, office, lodging, data centers, net lease, self-storage and manufactured home parks. The all-property index did not move in January, rose 2% over the past 12 months and remains 16% below its 2022 high.
A separate "core sector" composite of apartments, industrial, office and retail shows a nearly identical picture, with an index level of 130.6, flat on the month, up 2% over the past year and 18% below its 2022 peak.
For owners, lenders and investors, the upshot is that pricing has stabilized after the post-2022 reset but has not regained prior highs, even as operating fundamentals in many segments have improved. The current environment is one where underwriting is being done around flat to modestly rising asset values, rather than sharp repricing in either direction.
Clear Winners and Laggards
Beneath the calm headline numbers, Green Street's sector-level CPPI data point to wide dispersion in how different property types have fared since the market peak. Industrial continues to sit near the top of the stack, while office remains deeply underwater, with retail, residential and alternative sectors scattered in between.
On a point-in-time basis as of early February, the firm reports the following index levels, one-month and 12‑month changes and drawdowns from 2022 peaks:
- Apartments carry an index value of 154, were flat in January, are unchanged over the past 12 months and stand 19% below their 2022 peak.
- Industrial sits at 221.3, was flat in January, is up 2% over the past year and is 13% below its 2022 high.
- Malls, including outlet centers, have an index of 91, were unchanged on the month, are flat over 12 months and 7% below their peak.
- Office is at 74 and saw no change in January, is up 2% over 12 months but remains 35% below its 2022 high.
- Strip retail stands at 122.7, is flat on the month, up 5% over the past year and 7% below its peak.
- Data centers are at 115.6, flat in January, up 5% over 12 months and 10% below the peak.
- Health care is at 132.3, flat in January, up 5% over the past year and 12% below its peak.
- Lodging is at 101.9, unchanged on the month, flat over 12 months and 10% below its peak.
- Manufactured home parks are at 285.8, flat in January, up 3% over the past year and 12% below their peak.
- Net lease assets stand at 94.6, unchanged on the month, flat over the past year and 18% below their peak.
- Self-storage is at 247.4, flat in January, up 2% over 12 months and 21% below its high.
The short-term pattern is striking: across every sector Green Street tracks, the reported January change is zero. Over the past year, most sectors have delivered low- to mid-single-digit appreciation at best, with several flat and none posting double-digit gains.
From the 2022 peak, however, the spread between relative winners and losers is wide. Industrial's 13% drawdown contrasts with office's 35% decline, while self-storage and apartments have also given back a significant portion of their earlier gains, down 21% and 19%, respectively, despite still-elevated index levels. Malls and strip centers, by contrast, are each only 7% below their peaks, reflecting a more modest reset.
Relative Value and the Interest Rate Overhang
Rothemund's assessment that commercial real estate is "fairly valued" relative to corporate bonds shapes Green Street's view of the current pricing equilibrium. With cap rates roughly aligned with credit spreads and risk-free rates at present levels, the firm does not see a strong case in its index data for across-the-board repricing higher in the near term.
Instead, the base case implicit in the January report is that, absent a clear step down in interest rates, asset values are likely to drift rather than surge. The combination of a flat all-property index in the latest month, low single-digit gains over the past year and persistent discounts to 2022 peaks points to a market in which buyers and sellers are finding clearing prices, but neither side feels compelled to chase.
For owners, this environment favors asset management, leasing and NOI growth over expectations of multiple expansion. For buyers, it supports a focus on relative value across sectors—particularly those with stronger long-run CPPI performance and more limited drawdowns—rather than relying on a rising tide to lift all boats. And for lenders and capital providers, Green Street's data suggests a market that has repriced but not distressed on an aggregate basis, with risk concentrated in specific segments such as office.
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