Cap rates in the net-lease QSR market ended 2025 almost exactly where they began the year — but the tenant mix, geography and risk spectrum behind those averages look meaningfully different, according to a new year‑end report from B+E. While headline numbers suggest stability, the underlying data points to a market quietly repricing quality, favoring long-term leases with strong operators and rewarding the most competitive concepts with historically tight yields.
At the top level, B+E's year-end 2025 QSR Listed Inventory report shows 1,041 net-lease QSR properties on the market in December, up 5% from 989 in June but down from 1,117 one year earlier.
The average cap rate held steady at 5.68% year-over-year, while the average remaining lease term remained at 13.4 years, implying that investors have largely maintained pricing discipline even as the opportunity set shifted.
Average pricing in December came in at $2.67 million with 13.4 years of term, compared with $2.65 million and 13.3 years in November, underscoring a shallow month‑to‑month drift rather than any sharp re-rating.
Every month from late summer through year‑end, the picture is similarly steady: listed inventory hovered between 976 and 1,053 assets from August to November before ending at 1,041 in December, while cap rates moved within a two bps band, from 5.67% to 5.69%.
Over that same period, the average price fluctuated within a narrow range between roughly $2.65 million and $2.70 million and the average term inched up from 12.9 years in August to 13.4 years in December.
For investors, the message is that broad QSR pricing has remained anchored, with most of the action buried at the tenant and concept level rather than in sector-wide spread moves.
Flight to quality within the same sector
B+E's data shows a pronounced bifurcation between premier brands and the broader QSR field, with cap rates compressing at the high end even as lesser-known or challenged concepts trade with noticeable risk premiums.
McDonald's, which already posted the lowest average cap rate in June at 4.15%, has since moved below 4%, with the average cap now at 3.92% across 28 listed assets averaging $2.73 million in price and 17.4 years of remaining term.
In‑N‑Out Burger has overtaken McDonald's as the lowest‑yield name in the dataset, with a single listed asset at a 3.25% cap, priced at $6.15 million with 18.8 years term and an average rent of $51.45 per square foot, reflecting both its ground-lease structure and the depth of demand for California real estate.
Other high‑conviction brands are clustering in the mid‑4% cap band. Chick‑fil‑A's 53 listed properties are trading at an average cap rate of 4.29% and a $5.71 million price point, with a 13.8-year term and an average rent of $53.25 per square foot.
Raising Cane's, with 22 assets on the market, has a 4.71% average cap and a $4.57 million price, despite a shorter 11.7‑year average term, indicating continued appetite for its growth story and unit economics.
Chipotle Mexican Grill has emerged as the leading name among long‑term inventory, with 63 listings carrying a 4.84% average cap, a $3.65 million average price and a 13.9‑year average term; for properties with 10 or more years remaining, 59 locations sharpen to a 4.81% average cap, $3.70 million in pricing and a 14.4‑year term.
At the same time, more operationally or brand‑challenged concepts are clearing at materially higher yields. Hardee's 20 listed assets show a 6.40% average cap and a $1.49 million average price with only 10.9 years of term, while Jack in the Box's 13 listings average a 6.16% cap and $2.18 million price but hold just 6.4 years of remaining lease term.
Newer or smaller-format concepts with drive‑thru emphasis and low absolute price points, such as Scooter's Coffee at a 6.09% cap and $1.37 million average price or 7 Brew Coffee at a 6.19% cap and a $1.74 million average price, are trading wide to the blue‑chip names despite strong unit‑level sales narratives.
B+E notes that the universe of sub‑5% cap tenants has expanded meaningfully. In June 2025, only 10 tenants reported average cap rates below 5%; by year‑end, that number had risen to 14, signaling that the market is willing to pay up not just for the largest household names but also for a broader bench of perceived high‑quality operators.
That shift is occurring against the backdrop of a QSR industry valued at roughly $1.1 trillion by Fortune Business Insights, projected to reach $1.9 trillion by 2032 at a 9.01% compound annual growth rate, with North America retaining more than 37% of global market share as of 2024.
Inventory reshuffling by tenant and term
The B+E report also highlights a quiet reshuffling of who dominates listed inventory and what kind of leases are actually available. Starbucks remains the single largest tenant by number of assets on the market, with 122 properties representing about 12% of the total listed QSR supply, but that figure is down 18% from 148 properties in June.
Those assets carry an average 5.70% cap, $3.05 million pricing and 9.5 years of remaining term; only 27 Starbucks listings offer 10 or more years and those longer‑dated assets compress to a 5.36% cap and average $3.69 million price point with 13.7 years of term.
By contrast, several chains are skewing more heavily toward long‑term paper. Wendy's shows 62 assets on the market at a 5.66% average cap, $2.57 million price and 15.8‑year average term, with 54 locations carrying at least 10 years remaining and trading at a 5.62% cap and 17‑year average term.
Taco Bell's 51 assets average a 5.41% cap with 16 years of term, while 43 of those with 10 or more years left sharpen to a 5.40% cap and 17.8‑year term.
Dutch Bros Coffee, which has been aggressively expanding, has 48 listed properties with an average cap of 5.23% and a 13.5‑year term; 42 of these offer 10 or more years and are priced at around $2.78 million at a 5.25% cap.
The long‑term category is not limited to traditional burger and taco chains. Popeyes' 40 listings carry one of the longest average terms at 17.4 years, with a 5.73% cap rate and an average price of $2.5 million for the 36 assets with 10 or more years remaining. When terms extend to 18.6 years, cap rates compress to 5.59%.
Zaxby's nine listed properties average a 5.99% cap and 17.8‑year term; Salad and Go's six assets match that 17.7‑year term at a 5.75% cap, despite their smaller square footages and drive‑thru‑centric footprints.
Several emerging or regional brands — including Slim Chickens, Golden Chick, and Pollo Campero- offer cap rates between the mid‑6% to mid‑4% ranges and teens to high‑teens years of remaining term, with yields for investors willing to underwrite concept and market risk beyond the national stalwarts.
Concurrently, some operators are clearly in portfolio‑rationalization mode. Jack in the Box's corporate moves are illustrative: the company sold Del Taco Holdings to Yadav Enterprises for roughly $119 million after acquiring it in 2022 for about $585 million and has already shuttered 73 stores in 2025, with about 100 more closures expected this year.
That operational backdrop helps explain why Jack in the Box's net‑lease inventory currently reflects shorter terms and higher cap rates versus the broader QSR set.
Geographic concentrations and capital flows
On a geographic basis, QSR net‑lease supply remains heavily concentrated in growth and Sun Belt markets, with a clear tilt toward states where population and traffic patterns continue to favor drive‑thru formats. Texas leads by a wide margin, with 154 listed QSR assets at an average cap of 5.47%, followed by Florida, the only other state with more than 100 properties on the market, totaling 121 assets at a 5.05% average cap.
California ranks third with 65 properties and a 4.56% average cap rate, reflecting strong real estate fundamentals and land values even as pricing there remains among the tightest in the sample.
A second tier of states shows sizable but more modest inventory levels, generally paired with slightly wider yields. Georgia has 50 listed QSR assets at a 5.73% average cap, while Ohio's 49 properties trade at an average 6.20% and Alabama's 48 properties at 6.11%.
Indiana, Illinois and Oklahoma each show average QSR cap rates north of 6%, with 40, 39 and 35 assets on market, respectively, indicating that investors can still find yield pickup outside the coastal and high‑growth Sun Belt states.
B+E's data also shows Louisiana with 24 listed QSR assets at a 5.90% cap, Arkansas with 23 assets at a 5.53% cap and Arizona with 22 assets at a 5.39%, underscoring how the sector's net‑lease pipeline remains widely distributed across secondary and tertiary markets.
Higher cap rates are evident in several smaller or lower‑volume states at the edge of the dataset. Mississippi's 20 listed QSR assets carry an average 6.62% cap, Kansas' 13 assets are at 6.79% and Montana's six assets trade at 6.70%, while Alaska posts a single listing at a 7% cap.
The data suggests that while core markets like California and Florida are priced for safety, there is still meaningful spread available in select Midwestern, Mountain West and rural markets for sponsors comfortable with thinner buyer pools and less liquidity.
Across the board, B+E frames the QSR net‑lease sector as a stable but increasingly segmented market, where cap-rate averages mask a widening gap between trophy and typical assets.
With more than 1,000 properties on the market, a growing roster of sub‑5% cap tenants and a global QSR industry still forecast to grow, investors face a landscape in which brand selection, lease term, rent per square foot and geography are doing more of the work than macro cap-rate movement in driving returns.
© Arc, All Rights Reserved. Request academic re-use from www.copyright.com. All other uses, submit a request to TMSalesOperations@arc-network.com. For more information visit Asset & Logo Licensing.