There's been a lot of worry about the hundreds of billions in maturities coming due. Trepp's view is that the headline number is deceiving. More importantly, says the firm, is looking at hard maturities, which have no remaining contractual extensions and debt yield, representing the best available proxy for the ability to refinance. The combination is better at predicting danger.
In 2024, there were $37.6 billion in hard maturities, a subset of $85.4 billion in loans reaching a maturity date that year. Of the hard maturities, 56% paid on-time and $12.3 billion remained unresolved. That last group spent two-thirds of post-maturity time not performing, creating a lot of delinquency activity.
The maturity class of 2024 largely consisted of loans securitized in 2014, representing about 60% of the 2024 hard maturities, 29% of which didn't pay off. Another major group was securitizations from 2019, 47% of which didn't pay off. Of the 2017 vintage, 40% didn't pay off. Only 21% of the 2015 vintage failed to do so.
By property type, office had a weighted average percentage of time the loan was non-performing of 65%, with average debt yield by those that didn't pay off coming in at 9.6. For retail, the numbers were 57% and 8.5; 72% and 10.5 for lodging; 86% and 7.1 for multifamily and 63% and 8.2 for mixed-use.
In 2025, there were $44.2 billion in hard maturities, making up more than 51% of the total $86.1 billion in loans reaching their expiration date that year. Of the $44.2 billion, 70% paid on time and $11.4 billion was unresolved. But they spent only 45% of their time not performing, showing the impact of extending while performing negotiations. Office and retail had the largest unresolved balances.
The loans that were paid on time averaged debt yields of 13% to 14%. Loans that didn't pay on time averaged 9% or lower.
The maturity cohort was dominated by 10-year loans securitized in 2015 and by office and retail on the property type. Unresolved 2025 loans on average were in non-performance status for less time than in 2024. The 2015 vintage had 47% of time non-performing with an average debt yield of 9.5. The 2016 ones included a weighted average of 12% of the time non-performing and an average debt yield of 9.5. For 2020 vintage loans, it was 60%.
For 2026, the projection is $76.6 billion in hard maturities, more than in 2024 or 2025. They are heavily back-loaded; 39% falling in Q4 alone, while 36% have a debt yield at or below 8%, the portion most likely to face difficulties refinancing. Office, retail and multifamily have the highest concentrations of low-debt-yield exposure.
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