Commercial real estate sentiment remains largely steady in the first quarter, as executives navigate ongoing tariff pressures and interest rate uncertainty, which continue to slow transaction activity and widen buyer-seller pricing gaps.
The Real Estate Roundtable's First Quarter 2026 Sentiment Index, a quarterly survey of senior owners, developers, investors and lenders, registered 66, down just one point from the fourth quarter. While modest, the decline reflects a market in the early stages of a tentative and uneven recovery, the report said.
The Current Conditions Index rose two points to 66, suggesting improving near-term fundamentals. Meanwhile, the Future Index slipped two points to 67, indicating caution among executives regarding the pace and durability of the recovery amid geopolitical instability and uncertainty around pricing clarity.
Less than 10% of respondents indicated they believe market conditions are worse than a year ago, while 63% say conditions have improved. Looking ahead, 64% expect general market conditions to improve over the next 12 months, the survey found.
Executives cited continued strength in data centers and industrial properties, while multifamily and office markets remain highly location dependent. Asset values appear to be stabilizing, with 43% reporting no significant change from a year ago, 48% saying values increased and just 9% noting declines. Optimism is stronger for the year ahead, with 67% expecting prices to rise, 30% anticipating stability and only 3% forecasting modest declines.
Equity availability softened slightly compared with the previous quarter, though 42% of respondents believe equity capital is more accessible than a year ago. Debt markets show more pronounced improvement, with 78% reporting better debt availability compared with last year. Looking ahead, 65% expect equity availability to improve and 49% anticipate further gains in debt capital access.
"This quarter's survey shows the market is stabilizing, with improving debt availability and growing optimism about the year ahead — even as uncertainty continues to keep transaction volume below potential," Jeffrey DeBoer, president and CEO of the Real Estate Roundtable, said.
He added that sustained progress will hinge on policy clarity. "The industry is positioned for a more constructive 2026, but momentum will depend on a stable policy environment," DeBoer said, noting that clarity supports investment decisions that drive jobs, housing and economic activity nationwide.
© Arc, All Rights Reserved. Request academic re-use from www.copyright.com. All other uses, submit a request to TMSalesOperations@arc-network.com. For more information visit Asset & Logo Licensing.