The Supreme Court has struck down certain Trump-era tariffs, but Americans are unlikely to see meaningful price relief while shopping, according to Goldman Sachs economists.
The firm noted that while tariff-driven inflation may have peaked, costs are unlikely to drop significantly anytime soon. Tariffs added roughly 0.7% to inflation over the past 10 months, with levies expected to contribute another 0.1% in 2026, analysts wrote in a client note.
"We would not expect companies to lower prices in response to tariff reductions nearly as quickly as they raised them when tariffs were imposed," analysts Alec Phillips, Elsie Peng and David Mericle said.
The Supreme Court found that President Trump overstepped his authority under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) when he imposed tariffs last year, reaffirming Congress's exclusive power to levy taxes and tariffs in peacetime. While that decision invalidated those specific levies, other tariffs imposed under statutes such as Section 232 and Section 301 remain in effect.
The ruling creates the potential for U.S. companies to recover up to $180 billion in import taxes through refunds or adjustments. Corporations like Costco had already sued the Trump administration months earlier to secure eligibility for full reimbursement, absorbing tariff costs in the meantime to keep consumer prices stable.
The likelihood of consumers seeing any immediate savings is minimal, Goldman Sachs said, largely because the administration has already implemented new tariffs at levels comparable to those invalidated under IEEPA. Trump responded to the Supreme Court decision by imposing a 10%, then 15%, global tariff under Section 122 of the 1974 Trade Act, which allows a temporary import tax to address "large and serious" deficits or currency depreciation. Additional tariffs under Section 301 — meant to counter discriminatory foreign trade practices — also remain in place.
Although the ruling opens the door to refunds for companies, no clear repayment process has been established, complicating how importers, let alone consumers, might recover months of payments on now-invalid duties. Legal experts say companies could face months of uncertainty while U.S. Customs and Border Protection, the Court of International Trade in New York and lower courts work out the refund process. The Trump administration could also challenge court orders, potentially stretching the dispute over years.
Even if refunds are ultimately granted, UBS Chief Economist Paul Donovan warned that consumers may never benefit. Any rebates will be paid to importers as they are the ones who made payments to the U.S. Treasury and it is unlikely companies will rush to lower prices for their customers, he said.
Officials in the Trump administration have voiced similar skepticism. Following the ruling, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told the Economic Club of Dallas that returning tariff revenue to companies and consumers could be a lengthy process.
"My sense is that could be dragged out for weeks, months, years, so … we'll see what happens there. I got a feeling the American people won't see it," he said.
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