The Conference Board's employment trends index (ETI) for January 2026 leaves open the question of whether the theme of a "low-hire, low-fire environment" will continue for the rest of the year.
"While most labor market indicators suggest relative stability, the confidence of consumers and businesses point in a negative direction," commented the Board's Economist, Mitchell Barnes.
The ETI is a measure of payroll employment. In January, it rose to 105.06 from 104.51 in December. Barnes said this reflected a stronger-than-expected employment report and healthy payroll growth. Unemployment and layoffs remained mild, suggesting a labor market in balance even though the hiring rate in 2025 was low, he added.
According to the Conference Board, initial claims for unemployment insurance continued to fall in January. However, U.S. Dept of Labor statistics showed a continuing increase in the number of initial unemployment claims filed since the beginning of the year.
The Conference Board also noted a dip to 17.6% in the share of involuntary part-time workers, defined as individuals working less than 35 hours per week who want full-time work but are restricted to part-time hours due to economic reasons, such as slack work or inability to find full-time jobs. Real manufacturing and trade sales remained steady, even though other measures of manufacturing activity and employment showed contraction.
Six of the eight components of the ETI earned positive scores. On the other hand, one component– the share of consumers who report jobs are hard to get – climbed to 20.8%, its highest point in five years. Another component, the number of small businesses reporting they were currently unable to fill jobs, fell to a post-pandemic low of 31%. However, fewer planned to increase their hiring.
In 2025, employers announced 1.21 million job cuts, an increase of 58% from the 761,358 announced in 2024, according to Challenger Gray & Christmas. Annual job cuts were at the highest level since 2020, when 2.30 million cuts were announced. It was the seventh highest annual total since 1989. The analysis also showed fewer companies planned to hire workers over the year.
By industry, government laid off the highest number of employees in 2025, followed by technology, warehousing, retail, services and media companies. Companies slashed jobs because of closings, market and economic conditions, AI, tariffs and the impact of DOGE.
January 2026 saw the trend continue. U.S. employers announced 108,435 job cuts – up 118% from 49,795 the previous year, according to Challenger, Gray & Christmas and the highest for the month since 2009. The worst hits were in transportation, followed by technology, healthcare, chemical manufacturing and the media. The main reasons were contract loss, market and economic conditions, restructuring, AI and tariffs.
Since the beginning of January, the major companies that have announced serious reductions in their workforce include Amazon (16,000), UPS (30,000), Dow (4,500 globally), Pinterest, Mastercard (4% of staff globally), Nike (775), tech start-ups (1,840) and smaller regional firms, according to a report from Business Insider.
The newsletter MarketWatch offered one potential bright spot in the future outlook. "Big picture: Barring a recession, the U.S. job market probably can't get much worse after a rough 2025."
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