The retail sector continues to show resilience, with select markets posting particularly strong fundamentals. According to a recent Marcus & Millichap report, national retail property performance remains steady, supported by modest gains in real retail sales and limited new construction.
Overall demand for retail space is being sustained by a restricted supply pipeline, largely composed of single-tenant developments. As a result, national vacancy sits near 5%, while rent growth remains modest at around 1%. The firm noted that cap rate recalibration and declining borrowing costs, driven by tighter lender spreads, have helped support a pickup in transaction activity, reflecting continued investor confidence in the sector.
Florida stands out among top-performing regions, with Miami-Dade ending 2025 with a vacancy rate near 3%, well below the national average, supported by minimal projected inventory growth of just 0.2%.
Fort Lauderdale posted strengthening rent momentum last year and is forecast to achieve 2.8% growth in asking rent in 2026 as retail availability continues to tighten. Similarly, West Palm Beach is expected to see minimal new retail development, helping sustain occupancy levels and support rent gains. Orlando and Tampa are maintaining tight market conditions, with projected vacancies of 4.4% and 4.1% and rent growth between 1% and 2%, respectively.
Carolina metros are also emerging as leaders in the national retail outlook. Charleston continues to outperform, with a projected 3.3% vacancy rate and 3.1% rent growth, fueled by robust job creation and population growth.
Raleigh-Durham benefits from a diverse economic base and a modest construction pipeline, finishing 2025 with 2.8% vacancy and 4.5% rent growth and is estimated to maintain 3% vacancy and 1.3% rent growth in 2026. Charlotte combines a strong labor market with constrained development, producing a 3.6% vacancy rate and 4.3% rent growth last year, with projections for 2026 showing vacancy dropping slightly to 3.5% and rent growth accelerating to 4.7%, according to Marcus & Millichap.
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