Oil prices surging, credit markets straining, and echoes of a crisis past — Michael Hartnett, chief investment strategist at Bank of America's BofA Global Research, hears the rhyme of 2008 in today's markets.
In a recent client note reported by Bloomberg, Hartnett said the current environment reminds him of the 2007–2008 runup to the global financial crisis, when oil doubled from $70 to $140 a barrel and "subprime tremors" brought down Northern Rock and Bear Stearns.
While oil hasn't doubled this time, it's been rising at an alarming pace. West Texas Intermediate crude futures climbed from just under $62 in mid-February 2026 to $93.71 on Friday, March 13 — a 51% jump.
Over the same period, Brent crude rose from just under $68 to $103.14. The U.S. Energy Information Administration's Short-Term Energy Outlook projected Brent prices would stay above $95 a barrel through the third quarter and not fall below $80 until late 2026, only easing toward $70 by year-end. The agency also said prices likely won't return to early-2026 levels until sometime in 2027.
Hartnett sees a new potential weak point replacing the subprime mortgage risks of the last crisis: private credit. He's far from the only financial expert worried about that opaque corner of the market.
Warnings from high-profile financial leaders underscore the danger. Former Goldman Sachs CEO Lloyd Blankfein, JPMorgan Chase Chief Executive Jamie Dimon, and Marathon Asset Management founder Bruce Richards have all cautioned that the private credit boom is "growing riskier" as investors push deeper into the credit cycle in search of yield.
Steffen Meister, chair of European private capital giant Partners Group, has gone further, saying there is a "good chance" the annual default rate — which averaged 2.6% over the past decade — could double in the coming years.
Those concerns are backed by data. According to a recent report from Fitch Ratings, the default rate among U.S. private debt issuers rose to 9.2% in 2025, surpassing the previous record of 8.1% in 2024 and more than doubling the 3.6% rate recorded in 2023. The growing strain in the $1.7 trillion private credit market has raised fears that troubles there could spread through the broader economy.
Hartnett hasn't predicted an immediate repeat of 2008. For now, markets still assume the Iran conflict will be short-lived and that private credit risks aren't yet systemic, despite some notable write-downs.
"Credit has this issue that if a business does really well, your upside is capped, you just get your interest," Meister said. "Then you have the full downside — and this is where this becomes a problem."
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