National asking rents may be sitting at a four-year low, but a handful of metros are already pressing back toward their peaks, suggesting a very different playbook for investors who focus on markets where pricing power is far from exhausted.
Thin air at the top
Realtor.com's February Rental Report shows the national median asking rent at $1,667, down 1.7% year over year and 5.1% below the summer 2022 high, marking 30 straight months of annual declines. That softness has delivered meaningful relief to tenants without fully unwinding the pandemic run-up: national rents are still 14.2% above February 2020 levels.
Against that backdrop, Realtor.com emphasizes a bifurcated landscape, with deep post-pandemic corrections in much of the Sun Belt contrasted with a smaller set of metros where rents never truly broke and are now within striking distance of new highs.
"We are seeing two different stories across the country," said Realtor.com economist Jiayi Xu, noting that areas like Austin and Phoenix are digesting a wave of new supply, while markets such as Virginia Beach and Kansas City appear poised to push higher as seasonal demand returns.
Markets bucking the national trend
The clearest outliers are five large metros where February rents are less than 3% below local peaks and, in most cases, are already running ahead of last year. In Virginia Beach–Chesapeake–Norfolk, median asking rent reached $1,620 in February, 4.5% above a year earlier and only 1.7% below the August 2022 peak of $1,648, a $28 gap that could easily be closed in a typical spring leasing season.
Richmond tells a similar story: median rent is $1,507, up 2.0% year over year and just 2.7% under its July 2023 peak of $1,549, a difference of $42.
Baltimore–Columbia–Towson is moving in the same direction, with median rent at $1,810, 0.8% higher than a year ago and 2.4% shy of the August 2022 peak of $1,855, a $45 spread.
In Kansas City, where Xu argues there was "never any real relief to begin with," February asking rents sit at $1,387, up 1.0% year over year and only 1.8% below the June 2025 peak of $1,412, a $25 difference that looks more like seasonal noise than a cyclical reset.
San Jose stands out as both expensive and unusually resilient: median asking rent is $3,331, 1.8% above last year and just 2.5% under its August 2025 high of $3,417, a $86 gap. According to Realtor.com, San Jose has logged 28 consecutive months of positive year-over-year rent growth, bucking the national downdraft even as other high-cost coastal markets have rolled over.
Deep discount in the Sun Belt
The other side of the ledger is dominated by Southern and Sun Belt markets where overbuilding and normalization have delivered double-digit corrections from pandemic-era highs, often paired with long runs of year-over-year declines. Among the 50 largest metros, 15 now have median asking rents at least 10% below their peaks, and most of the steepest drawdowns are in multifamily-heavy markets that surged during 2021–2022.
Austin–Round Rock–San Marcos leads that list, with February median rent at $1,357, down 7.1% year over year and 18.2% — or $302 — below its September 2022 peak of $1,659, after 34 consecutive months of annual declines.
Birmingham's median rent of $1,125 is 3.4% below last year and 17.1% ($232) below its July 2022 peak of $1,357, marking 32 months of year-over-year declines.
Memphis has followed a similar path: $1,140 in median rent, down 3.8% year over year and 16.1% ($219) below its July 2022 high of $1,359, also after 34 months of declines.
In Phoenix–Mesa–Chandler, where construction cranes have reshaped the skyline, February rents sit at $1,427, 4.4% below last year and 15.6% ($263) under the June 2022 peak of $1,690, following 41 straight months of year-over-year decreases.
Atlanta–Sandy Springs–Roswell's median rent of $1,543 is 2.0% lower than a year ago and 15.2% ($277) below its October 2021 high of $1,820, after 42 consecutive months of decline — one of the longest runs in the country.
Las Vegas–Henderson–North Las Vegas has seen its median rent fall to $1,423, 1.8% below last year and 14.8% ($248) below the June 2022 peak of $1,671, marking 41 months of year-over-year declines.
San Diego–Chula Vista–Carlsbad, while still expensive, has corrected as well: median rent is $2,626, down 3.7% year over year and 14.3% ($438) below its August 2022 peak of $3,064, after 23 months of annual declines.
Nashville–Davidson–Murfreesboro–Franklin sits at $1,457, 4.5% below last year and 13.9% ($236) below its July 2023 high of $1,693, marking 31 consecutive months of year-over-year declines.
Raleigh–Cary's median rent of $1,437 is 1.5% under last year and 13.4% ($222) below its July 2022 peak of $1,659, after 34 months of decline.
Denver–Aurora–Centennial has followed suit: $1,720 median rent, down 4.2% year over year and 13.0% ($258) short of its August 2023 high of $1,978, with 24 months of annual decreases.
Rounding out the group, San Antonio–New Braunfels has a median rent of $1,188, 4.0% below a year ago and 12.6% ($171) under its December 2022 peak of $1,359, after 30 months of decline.
Miami–Fort Lauderdale–West Palm Beach, despite a 32.8% gain from pre-pandemic levels, now sits at $2,235, 3.3% below last year and 12.4% ($315) under its July 2022 peak of $2,550, after 33 consecutive months of year-over-year decreases.
Jacksonville's median rent of $1,456 is down 3.4% annually and 11.9% ($197) below its June 2022 high of $1,653, with 16 months of declines.
Seattle–Tacoma–Bellevue is at $1,905, 1.9% below last year and 11.7% ($253) under its July 2022 peak of $2,158, after 34 months of annual drops.
Dallas–Fort Worth–Arlington, at $1,408, is 3.7% under last year and 10.1% ($158) below its July 2022 peak of $1,566, with 35 consecutive months of decline.
Strategy implications for investors
For investors, the Realtor.com data underscore a split between markets still working through the aftermath of aggressive supply pipelines and those where limited inventory and steady demand are keeping rents near their ceiling. The former group offers entry points at meaningful discounts to recent peaks, but with added exposure to continued concessions and competition; the latter suggests smaller nominal upside but a clearer line of sight to rent growth resuming as seasonal demand returns.
Xu frames it as a timing and positioning issue rather than a simple story of weakness or strength. "In markets like Kansas City, there was never any real relief to begin with — what looks like a dip is nothing more than a seasonal pause," she said, adding that as spring leasing approaches, metros sitting within 3% of peak rents are "poised to resume an upward trajectory and push toward new all-time highs."
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