Retailers can expect another year of steady momentum in 2026, as the National Retail Federation projects sales will climb 4.4% to reach $5.6 trillion—a pace that would surpass last year's growth and outperform the long-term average.
The forecast, developed with Oxford Economics using a new modeling approach, compares favorably with the 3.9% gain recorded between 2024 and 2025. If it bears out, the 2026 increase would exceed the 2013–2025 average of 3.6%, excluding the volatile pandemic years and would mark the strongest non-pandemic annual growth since 2013.
The estimate is expressed in nominal terms, meaning inflation is not factored in, but NRF emphasized that "a meaningful portion of the projected sales growth is anticipated to reflect real gains rather than inflation-driven increases."
"Consumer spending was a steady and reliable engine of growth in 2025, even as broader economic conditions fluctuated," NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay said in prepared remarks.
"We expect that consumer resilience to continue into 2026, with household spending once again serving as a pillar of economic support."
The organization cautioned that its outlook does not incorporate possible effects from the war in Iran, rising oil prices or potential global supply chain disruptions, given the uncertainty surrounding those developments.
"While the geopolitical environment and ongoing trade policy challenges warrant close attention, we remain optimistic that the underlying fundamentals of the U.S. economy will support continued stability in the year ahead," said NRF Chief Economist and Executive Director of Research Mark Mathews in prepared remarks.
NRF's model also reflects the widening economic divide among consumers. Higher-income households continue to drive most of the spending growth across several retail categories, a bifurcation trend that became evident last year. The group expects retail activity to benefit early in 2026 from larger refunds tied to the Working Families Tax Cut Act.
Meanwhile, consumer confidence remains uneasy. The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index has trended downward since 2021, though it has fluctuated along the way. NRF noted that sentiment "has remained historically disconnected" from actual spending, suggesting it may no longer serve as a reliable predictor.
"Solid underlying fundamentals, particularly income growth, household balance sheets and labor market stability, are expected to support continued consumer activity in 2026," the organization wrote.
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