The high supply multifamily pressures in the Sun Belt might not be over just yet — at least in Jacksonville — although the long-term trends appear to be more favorable in the market.
Completions this year are expected to be in line with last year's pace, which would expand the inventory by another 2.3 percent, according to a Jacksonville investment forecast report for 2026 from Marcus & Millichap. This would push inventory growth at the sixth fastest pace among major cities nationwide, said Marcus & Millichap.
That's expected to increase the vacancy rate in the market by 20 basis points to 6.7 percent, ranking the second highest among major U.S. cities. Rent growth is only expected to be 0.3 percent in 2026, as a result.
"Rising vacancy, while moderate, weighs on rent growth, keeping the metro's annual rate of increase below other major Florida markets," Marcus & Millichap said.
"The year-end average is projected at $1,485 per month."
Additionally, absorption is trailing slightly behind deliveries.
On some good news, investment interest appears to be increasing among multifamily product in Jacksonville. This is a result of borrowing costs and insurance rates easing in 2025, reversing a trend of spikes seen in previous years.
"Transaction velocity has already accelerated modestly over the past year, driven mainly by trades in the $1 million to $10 million price range, though a notable gain in transactions over $20 million was also evident," Marcus & Millichap said.
Particularly, the West Side corridor of Jacksonville has enjoyed an almost doubling in transactional activity, the largest vacancy decline and the biggest rent growth in the city. Marcus & Millichap thinks investors will continue to be intrigued by Class B and C assets in 2026 in the West Side, thanks to limited new development, which is also a positive for Jacksonville's entire multifamily market.
"The longer-term outlook is more favorable as the metro anticipates a sharp drop in ongoing construction activity following the third quarter of 2026," the brokerage explained.
Also, Jacksonville, which ranked as a top 10 employment market in terms of the major regions in the nation during 2025, is expected to add 6,000 new positions in 2026, according to Marcus & Millichap.
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