A new study from Tufts University's Fletcher School reveals that the rise of artificial intelligence is reshaping the geography of U.S. labor markets, creating a new generation of "Wired Belts" — regions where workers are particularly exposed to AI-driven automation. While major tech hubs have long dominated discussions of technological disruption, the report shows that smaller university cities are also emerging as highly vulnerable locales.
The Tufts AI Jobs Risk Index evaluates risk both as a share of local employment and in absolute terms, as the number of jobs potentially affected. By percentage of local workforce, metros like San Jose, Washington, D.C., Durham, San Francisco, Seattle, Austin, Boston and Raleigh are among the most exposed. These regions are home to high concentrations of roles that AI is most likely to disrupt, including knowledge work in tech, finance and professional services.
Smaller university-centered metros such as Boulder, Lexington Park, Trenton, Tallahassee, Olympia, Ann Arbor, Bloomington, Provo and Madison also face elevated risk when measured relative to the size of their labor pools.
In terms of absolute job losses, larger labor markets — including New York, Los Angeles, Chicago, Dallas, Atlanta, and Boston — are expected to bear the brunt due to the scale of employment in AI-sensitive occupations. Across states, the report highlights those most vulnerable by share of employment, including the District of Columbia, Massachusetts, Virginia, Maryland, Washington, Colorado and New York. Meanwhile, California, Texas, New York, Florida, and Illinois are projected to experience the largest total number of displaced positions.
The analysis also underscores a widening geographic divergence: high-percentage risk metros often do not coincide with the largest absolute job losses. This distinction means policymakers and employers must consider both the relative and total economic exposure of regions when planning workforce transitions or retraining initiatives. In many smaller university towns, even a modest number of employment losses represents a large share of the local economy, making those communities particularly sensitive to disruption, Tufts said.
The "Wired Belts" concept extends beyond the traditional tech-centric coastal regions to include these smaller, highly educated labor markets, signaling that AI's impact is neither purely urban nor confined to mega-metros. Coupled with ongoing state-level variations in AI legislation and regulatory attention, the geographic pattern of risk is poised to shape both local economies and policy responses in the coming years.
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