As tensions escalate in the Middle East and oil prices surge, a surprising consequence may be looming far from the front lines: the rise of the four-day work week.
The war's reach has already disrupted global trade. With Iran shutting down the Strait of Hormuz and attacking oil production facilities across the region, a fifth of global oil shipments have come to a halt. Fuel costs are climbing, and energy shortages are beginning to bite.
Governments and businesses are being forced to rethink how people work and travel, much as they did during the pandemic. Covid-19 reshaped the office world almost overnight, propelling widespread adoption of remote and hybrid models. Now, rising fuel prices could similarly nudge countries to rethink the traditional workweek — not because of a virus, but because of constrained energy supplies.
The goal this time is not to prevent disease but to preserve resources. Keeping commuters off the road would conserve fuel for essential services such as ambulances, farms and manufacturing.
"Drive and fly less" has become part of the official guidance from Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and the European Commission, according to Fortune, which reported that both urged citizens to work from home whenever possible.
In Asia, several nations — including Sri Lanka, the Philippines and Pakistan — are going further. According to The Economic Times, they are experimenting with shorter work weeks to cut fuel consumption while maintaining productivity.
That shift may have larger ripple effects. The consultancy Mercer said its research shows 63% of companies are open to considering a four-day work week, and 30% implemented it in at least one location in 2022. That earlier movement stemmed from pandemic-era efforts to draw employees back into the office — not push them out of it.
Still, experts remain cautious about how durable any change might be in the West.
"I do not see this as a model for the U.S. and U.K., at least in the long term, because the current sharp rise in fuel costs is temporary," Wladislaw Rivkin, a professor of organizational behavior at Trinity Business School, told Fortune.
Others see a familiar pattern emerging.
"Remote work didn't spread because companies planned it," William Self, chief workforce strategist at Mercer, told Fortune.
"It spread because the pandemic crisis forced the experiment, the experiment worked, and workers weren't willing to give back what they'd gained. The same logic applies here."
He added, "if employers experiment with a four-day work week and employees show they can deliver in four days what they previously delivered in five, management has to justify the fifth day rather than the other way around."
If that shift occurred, the commercial real estate sector could again face a reckoning. The impact would depend on how successfully companies have re-established their return-to-office strategies.
Flexible work differs from a mandated four-day workweek, but both could reduce office demand and change workplace design. The question is whether the same or greater productivity can be achieved with fewer hours — and whether workers will accept unchanged pay for altered schedules in an economy already recalibrating under pressure.
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