Once considered a reliable bet simply by having a supermarket at the center, grocery-anchored retail is evolving and not all grocery anchors are created equal, according to JLL's Grocery Tracker 2026. Increasingly, the performance of these centers depends on whether the anchor reflects today's bifurcated consumer landscape, not merely on the presence of a grocer.
Ongoing food price inflation, financial pressure on middle-income families and shifting shopper priorities have reshaped grocery behavior. Since early 2020, the cost of food at home has skyrocketed by more than 30%. Even as overall headline inflation has cooled, nearly 80% of shoppers still report noticing price hikes at supermarkets, more than any other retail category.
This relentless pressure has split American consumers into two distinct camps. On one end, high-income households are thriving and increasingly spend on premium, wellness-focused products.
On the other hand, middle and lower-income families are feeling the squeeze, prioritizing value above all else as savings deplete and credit card debt rises. The result is a classic "barbell shopper" market, where the middle is squeezed and growth concentrates at both extremes, according to JLL.
Also, shoppers are fundamentally changing how they shop. Rather than one big weekly trip, many are making more frequent, targeted runs, often visiting multiple stores to chase deals, a behavior that has helped value-focused and fresh-format operators gain traction.
The bifurcation in consumer behavior is creating a parallel split in the grocery industry itself. Traditional supermarkets still command the majority of store visits, but their share has eroded over time. According to JLL research, the winners in today's market fall into two distinct categories: value-focused operators like Aldi and Grocery Outlet and fresh-format specialty grocers like Trader Joe's, Whole Foods and Sprouts.
Overall, grocery-anchored retail fundamentals remain among the strongest in retail real estate. Grocery-anchored centers enjoy significantly lower vacancy rates — 4% compared to 6.3% for non-anchored centers — and command an average NNN rent premium of 4.4%, said JLL.
Grocery expansion is concentrated in specific regions, said JLL. The Southeast has dominated, capturing 215 of the 400 tracked new store openings in 2025, with Florida leading the way, driven by population migration, business-friendly policies and strong consumer spending. At the same time, significant clusters have also emerged in the Mid-Atlantic, particularly around New Jersey, Maryland and the Washington D.C./Baltimore corridor, where operators are upgrading existing locations or filling unmet demand.
Investor confidence in grocery-anchored retail is strong, the report said. Transaction volume for these assets surged 42% in 2025 to nearly $11 billion and institutional investors increased their share to 27% of acquisitions, the highest level in more than a decade. Cap rates have compressed by roughly 40 basis points from their cyclical peak in 2023, averaging about 6.7% nationally at the close of 2025.
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