Sometimes, during economic uncertainty and volatility, folks take a glass-half-full approach, rather than getting too caught up in the downsides. That's what two commercial real estate industry experts did at our panel "An Examination of Capital Markets" during GlobeSt.'s Net Lease Spring 2026 event.
While treasury yields have been all over the place in the past month and all of the panelists have noticed a slowdown in net lease recently, Christopher Marks, senior managing director of capital markets at Surmount and Gautam Mashettiwar, executive vice president at Arch Street Capital Advisors, particularly are betting on transactions picking up in 2026 compared with last year.
Marks thinks that the resiliency in the bonus depreciation space, where typical holds range from one to two years, will drive activity this year. While Jones is optimistic about transactions rising in 2026, he doesn't think they will do so in a "blockbuster" way as interest rates "linger where they are for longer than we think."
Others on the panel, including Andrew Dansker, founder and CEO of Dansker Capital Group, who led the discussion and Barclay Jones, managing director at Carlyle, did not comment on expected transaction activity for the rest of the year.
A Look at Recent Deals
However, all panelists agree that there has been some disruption and volatility, as the 10-year Treasury Yield keeps swinging back and forth.
In the last roughly half dozen deals that Marks has been involved with, he said that the spreads have been wider, noting that interest rates have ranged in the upper five percent to the lower six percent range.
Jones sees a mixed bag when it comes to spreads.
"I think in some areas they're a little wider. I think in other areas they've been quite tight, particularly in rated product," he explained.
While Mashettiwar sees some widening, it's not as broad as it could be, and points to still "a lot" of competition that exists in the capital markets.
Dansker also jumped in on the debate with some thoughts: "It seems like in credit, there's a tighter end of the market where the spreads have come in because people want that clean, high-quality product. Then on the other end, they're widening to deal with volatility. It's almost failed two cities a little bit on credit quality."
The Need for Flexibility
Borrowers in this climate appear to be seeking flexibility — specifically aiming for shorter-term loans.
"We're not seeing anybody go above five years," Marks revealed, while noting that prepay or modified prepay conditions are coming into play.
However, there is one exception in the market. Borrowers are willing to take on more term for lower leverage trophy properties, according to Marks.
Mashettiwar's overview was that lenders are acting more conservatively today and not wanting to "stretch for deals" and instead stay principled on their standards. That comes despite him noting that there's plenty of liquidity on the debt side for net lease.
"I think there's a lot of good opportunities that they're chasing today," he sensed of the lending appetite. "I think they're finding enough pipeline that they don't feel like they need to stretch."
Overall, fundamentals for net lease look strong from a liquidity standpoint.
However, some of the panelists did point to areas where stress is building up. Jones said that this continues throughout office, as occupancy has yet to return to the levels seen before the pandemic. Marks, meanwhile, points to stress in the casual dining sector.
The question becomes, will the volatility end, with that resulting in the floodgates opening for lending? That may depend on how long the war in the Middle East lasts. And latest trends aren't favorable, with WTI Crude oil spiking 12 percent, as of midday Thursday, passing $111 per barrel, following President Trump's address to the nation on Wednesday night. So, what happens next remains to be seen and how investors react.
But still, full-blown panic hasn't crept in and CRE remains bullish.
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