The North American big box industrial market gained momentum in the second half of 2025, marking a clear shift from the softness of prior years toward a more balanced environment, according to Colliers' 2026 Big Box Outlook.
New leasing rose to 145.6 million square feet, the strongest level since 2022, while net absorption reached 85.6 million square feet, nearly double the pace in the first half of the year. Demand was broad-based, led by 3PLs, retailers, e-commerce users and growing manufacturing and reshoring activity.
At the same time, development activity contracted sharply. The construction pipeline fell to 113.1 million square feet, down roughly 70% from 2022 peaks, when more than 380 million square feet was underway. The slowdown helped push national vacancy down 108 basis points to 10%, marking a clear inflection after two years of supply-driven increases.
Core hubs such as Chicago, Atlanta and Dallas–Fort Worth posted steady gains, while coastal markets continued digesting earlier oversupply. Large-format facilities remain among the tightest segments across most markets.
Against this improving national backdrop, market-level performance reveals a more nuanced recovery, with several logistics-heavy metros leading the rebound while others continue to work through lingering supply overhangs.
Columbus posted one of the strongest recoveries in the cycle, with vacancy falling from 16.4% to 7.8%, an 862-basis-point decline to its lowest level since 2022. Net absorption reached 10.3 million square feet, up 87% year over year, driven by logistics-focused submarkets including Licking County, Pickaway County and the Southeast. Leasing totaled 9.8 million square feet, slightly above 2024 levels. Third-party logistics providers were the dominant demand driver, reflecting continued network optimization and last-mile efficiency strategies.
Greenville–Spartanburg recorded 11.7 million square feet of net absorption, pushing vacancy down 1,240 basis points to 7.9%. Leasing reached a record 11.5 million square feet. Large occupiers anchored activity, including DHL's occupation of three buildings over 900,000 square feet tied to First Solar operations, and First Solar's nearly 1.3 million square foot facility in Gaffney, South Carolina. Supply conditions tightened dramatically, with construction falling to 1.5 million square feet, down 92% from peak levels three years ago.
Phoenix saw vacancy fall from 18.9% to 14.3%, supported by stronger demand and sharply reduced construction. Leasing reached 11 million square feet, while net absorption totaled 12.1 million square feet, up 27% year over year. However, performance varied by segment, with mid-sized buildings still elevated at 21.6% vacancy, while large-format space tightened to just 4.5% vacancy. Construction fell to 3.2 million square feet, down 87% from peak levels, and rents rose 1.5% year over year to $8.91 per square foot.
Seattle–Puget Sound continues to lag the broader industrial recovery, with big box vacancy rising from 3% in 2022 to 14.8% by year-end 2025, reflecting a sustained imbalance between prior-cycle supply and weaker recent demand. Net absorption was slightly negative in 2025 at -901,824 square feet, despite 5.4 million square feet of new leasing, much of it concentrated in mid-sized buildings. Vacancy remains highest in the 200,000–499,999 square foot segment, while larger facilities are relatively tighter at 8.2%. Development has slowed sharply, falling from 7.8 million square feet under construction in 2023 to just 2.1 million square feet by year-end 2025, the lowest level since 2015. However, elevated vacancy has persisted, and rents declined 3.2% year over year to $9.76 per square foot.
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