A second wave of inflation tied to the Iran-related oil shock could begin emerging in the coming months as price pressures extend beyond energy into packaging, chemicals, apparel and healthcare supply chains, according to market commentary highlighted in a Business Insider report.
While early inflation impacts have been concentrated in gasoline and airfare, Goldman Sachs strategists cited in the report pointed to broader downstream pressure as petrochemical-linked inputs move through global supply chains, including plastics, resins, fertilizers and synthetic fibers embedded in consumer and industrial goods.
"The cruelest part of the second wave is its timing," Siebert Financial CIO Mark Malek said. "These increases do not all arrive on the same day. They trickle in."
Goldman Sachs research cited in the report highlights packaging materials, food inputs and industrial components derived from oil and natural gas as among the most exposed categories. Pricing effects are expected to emerge over a three- to nine-month horizon and reflect only petrochemical-related inputs, excluding raw materials, logistics, transport, energy and other costs.
Grocery prices are expected to rise due to higher costs in both food inputs and petrochemical-based packaging. Malek noted that most grocery items rely on plastic packaging, including bottles, bags, trays, wraps, pouches and lids. He said polymer prices used in food packaging rose sharply in March and are expected to continue increasing through mid-year, projecting a 4% pass-through impact tied specifically to plastic costs.
Goldman Sachs estimated a 3% increase in food-related cost of goods sold and a 4% increase in beverages, with effects expected to flow through over three to nine months.
The report also noted rising aluminum prices, which affect the cost of foods and beverages packaged in cans. Separately, fertilizer supply chain disruptions were cited as a potential driver of food inflation, with impacts tied to the timing of the spring planting season.
Personal care and household goods are also expected to see significant exposure. Malek said products such as laundry detergent, cleaning supplies and paper towels are typically packaged in plastic containers. He estimated a 3% to 4% increase in personal care and household products tied to plastic packaging costs and noted that products with limited alternatives, such as trash bags, could see the sharpest price increases.
Goldman Sachs estimated an 18% increase in the cost of goods sold for personal care items over the next three to nine months. Some companies have indicated they may implement incremental price increases before input costs rise.
Pharmaceutical and healthcare spending are exposed through both packaging and certain material inputs. Malek cited adhesives in bandages, coatings on pills, plastic blister packs and prescription bottles as petrochemical-based. He also noted that some pharmaceutical inputs themselves are affected.
The report highlighted that global pharmaceutical trade has been disrupted by shipping constraints, particularly for drugs and inputs with short shelf lives, where delays can affect product quality.
Clothing prices are also expected to rise. According to UN estimates cited in the report, about 60% of clothing is made from polyester, nylon and acrylic.
Goldman Sachs estimated a 15% increase in the cost of goods sold for clothing over the next three to six months, which is expected to feed into retail pricing.
Footwear is even more dependent on petrochemical-based materials. The report noted that around 70% of materials in synthetic shoes are petrochemical-based, with approximately 30% of those materials costs directly tied to oil prices, according to analysis from the Footwear Distributors and Retailers of America.
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