For a growing slice of the workforce, the pandemic-era bargain of trading proximity for space is starting to look expensive.
Workers who pushed farther from city centers in search of bigger homes and cheaper housing are now confronting a different reality at the pump. With gas and diesel prices surging and more employers requiring time back in the office, the long-distance commute that once felt manageable under hybrid schedules is becoming a financial strain—with ripple effects that could extend into commercial real estate.
The shift is most visible among so-called supercommuters, a group that has expanded sharply since 2020. A 2024 study from Stanford University and INRIX found that across the 10 largest U.S. cities, the number of people driving 75 miles or more to work increased by about a third after the pandemic. These marathon commutes, often stretching 90 minutes or more each way, were made possible by the rise of remote and hybrid work, but they are now colliding with a much higher cost of driving.
The math is increasingly hard to ignore. Commuters who drive roughly 75 miles each way in a vehicle with average fuel economy could spend about $500 a month on gas alone just to get to and from work, according to The Wall Street Journal. In higher-cost states or with longer distances, that figure climbs quickly.
Fuel prices have surged in recent months. As of early May, the national average for regular gasoline stood above $4.45 per gallon, according to U.S. Energy Information Administration data, up nearly 60% from early January. Diesel prices have climbed even more steeply, jumping more than 60% over the same period. AAA data shows similar trends, with wide regional variation—from under $4 in some states to well above $6 in California.
At the same time, more workers are returning to physical workplaces. Nearly 63% of workers are now fully on-site, up from just over half in late 2021, according to the Stanford research. Even among those with hybrid schedules, commuting remains a regular and increasingly costly part of the week.
There are early signs that workers are adjusting. Work-from-home days ticked up from 24.7% in February to 26.9% in March, according to Stanford Economist Nicholas Bloom.
"Another way of putting this is if about 150 million Americans are working on any given weekday, an increase of 2.2% days in WFH means an extra three million Americans working from home," Bloom told the Journal.
That incremental shift suggests workers are trying to blunt the impact of higher fuel costs where they can. But for many, especially those required on-site, flexibility has limits.
The financial pressure is not evenly distributed. Research from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York found that rising fuel costs are hitting lower-income households particularly hard, forcing them to cut back in other areas.
Bank of America Institute data shows consumers pulling back on discretionary spending such as restaurants, leisure and travel as more of their budgets go toward fuel. In past periods of elevated gas spending, consumers have also traded down on groceries and reduced purchases of big-ticket items like electronics and furniture.
For commercial real estate, the implications are nuanced but meaningful. The same forces that once supported suburban and exurban housing growth—remote work and the ability to tolerate long commutes a few days a week—may begin to reverse if commuting costs remain elevated. Higher transportation costs could push some workers to reconsider proximity to jobs, potentially benefiting closer-in locations and reshaping demand patterns for office and retail assets.
At the same time, the persistence of hybrid work continues to act as a pressure valve. Even modest increases in work-from-home days translate into millions fewer commutes, softening the blow of higher fuel prices and complicating any straightforward return-to-office narrative.
The result is a workforce caught between geography and economics: tethered to decisions made during a period of cheap money and flexible work, but now navigating a landscape where distance carries a much higher price.
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