For a while, it was looking like a foregone conclusion that New York City would freeze rent increases on stabilized apartments this year under the new direction of Mayor Zohran Mamdani. Then came the anticipated decision in a preliminary vote from the Rent Guidelines Board.
The nine-member housing authority agreed to adjust rents for one-year leases in the 0-2 percent range. For two-year leases, the Board put a potential increase in the 0-4 percent range.
While a rent freeze is still on the table — it does leave less certainty after Mamdani appointed six members to the Board in February to secure well beyond the majority needed to deliver on the core campaign promise. What makes things more interesting is the panel voted against adjustments on one-year leases ranging from -3 percent to 0 percent and a -4.5 to 0 percent for two-year durations.
Instead, tenants who live in roughly one million stabilized units could see their rents hike by as much as four percent.
While there is less certainty on what the RGB will rule this summer, local trade association, the Real Estate Board of New York, was not pleased with the decision, arguing that rising costs make it challenging, especially for landlords with older buildings.
"A freeze or near-freeze is unjustifiable," Basha Gerhards, executive vice president of public policy at the non-profit organization, wrote in a statement to GlobeSt.
"The Board has a statutory obligation to consider the financial viability of these buildings. Failing to do so will further accelerate deterioration in the housing millions of New Yorkers depend on as well as remove units from the market because they cannot be adequately maintained."
Mamdani, in a statement, on the other hand, noted that he was "encouraged to see the Board taking seriously the data around affordability, operating expenses, and the pressures facing both tenants and small property owners."
Stabilized units represent almost half of the city's total rental supply.
The RGB last froze rents in 2020 under Bill de Blasio's administration. This was also done in two straight years, from 2015 to 2016, when de Blasio was the Mayor.
Now, we await for the final vote this year, where the Board will determine the official adjustment. A rent freeze remains a possibility, but maybe not as certain as weeks ago. Kalshi traders now have the odds of this happening still favorable at 75.8 percent, but below the nearly 86 percent chance seen in late April.
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