Many Sun Belt states have benefited from the migration trends seen after the pandemic; however, one key area in Florida is seeing a slowdown. That's Orlando — particularly relating to its multifamily sector.
Net absorption in the first quarter totaled just 1,780 in the market, cut in half from the total posted in the same period in the year prior, a report from Colliers finds.
"While structural demand persists, a transition toward market normalization is expected as slower population growth keeps 2026 absorption levels roughly 60% below the 2021 peak, leading to a gradual rebalancing of fundamentals rather than rapid expansion," Colliers said.
The other two challenges for Orlando have been affordability and supply pressures. The latter has resulted in a "prolonged spike in inventory," according to Colliers, with a total of 295,115 units on the market in the first quarter. As a result, asking rents fell by 2.4 percent year-over-year to $1,716 per month, while occupancy dipped by 20 basis points to 94.3 percent.
Still, investors see value for multifamily in "Theme Park Capital of the World." Even with geopolitical uncertainty and elevated interest rates, sales volume improved modestly in the 12-month trailing period to $2.6 billion. And over the last five years, Orlando has posted $22.8 billion in sales volume, with Colliers referring to the area as "one of the most liquid and prominent multifamily investment markets in the U.S."
In the current landscape, investors are favoring four and five-star properties that offer more flexible financing and lower insurance costs.
Multifamily in Orlando isn't collapsing — rather, it's recalibrating in the eyes of Colliers. Supply, while it's been elevated, fell to 1,215 units, from 2,276 in the first quarter of 2025. That bodes well for rent growth, with Colliers projecting this to start again next year.
"Current trends suggest that pricing has already bottomed out and is beginning to stabilize," it said.
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