Restaurants are no longer just competing with each other – they are fighting grocery stores, convenience chains and warehouse clubs for everyday meal occasions, and that shift is starting to reshape where food‑and‑beverage rent rolls look the safest in a center. For commercial real estate investors, the winners emerging from this new "share of stomach" battle are increasingly the brands that pair disciplined value with loyalty, menu innovation and tight operations – and in many cases, the grocery, c‑store and club anchors sitting across the parking lot.
Shifting Share Of Stomach
Competition for consumers' food dollars is intensifying as grocery stores, convenience retailers and warehouse clubs expand prepared food offerings at a time when many households are looking for ways to stretch their budgets. According to Placer.ai, the trend is creating a more challenging operating environment for restaurants, which are increasingly competing against a broader range of food providers for everyday meal occasions.
That shift is showing up clearly in visitation patterns. As a result, year-over-year visitation trends for quick-service restaurants have lagged those of grocery stores and superstores over the past 12 months, highlighting a meaningful shift in consumer food spending patterns. For owners of grocery‑anchored and power centers, it means that well‑located anchors with strong prepared‑food programs may now be siphoning traffic from nearby QSR pads instead of feeding them.
A More Selective Restaurant Customer
The shift was a key theme at the 2026 National Restaurant Association Show in Chicago, where industry sentiment reflected growing concern about a more selective consumer and a wider competitive landscape. That mood aligns with visitation data showing consumers becoming more deliberate about dining purchases amid higher gas and grocery prices and ongoing economic uncertainty.
After a strong start to February, visitation trends across quick-service, fast-casual and casual-dining restaurants have generally declined year over year in recent months, according to Placer.ai. Fine-dining concepts have largely bucked the trend, however, as higher-income consumers remain more insulated from economic pressures and have benefited from recent gains in the equity markets. For landlords, that bifurcation suggests high‑income trade areas and experience‑driven, special‑occasion restaurants may still deliver durable sales even as mid‑market dining softens.
Traffic Leaders Show A Clear Playbook
Even in a tougher backdrop, several brands are proving that the right strategy can still drive meaningful traffic growth. Several chains emerged as traffic leaders during the first quarter. In fast casual, CAVA posted 9.7% same-restaurant sales growth driven by a 6.8% increase in guest traffic, outperforming many peers, including Chipotle, which continues to execute its "Recipe for Growth" strategy following periods of negative comparable sales growth.
Within the quick-service segment, Burger King reported a 5.8% increase in U.S. comparable sales during the first quarter, supported by promotional partnerships and family-focused marketing initiatives. Taco Bell remained a standout performer for Yum! Brands, combining value-oriented pricing, menu innovation and a robust digital loyalty platform to attract consumers across income levels.
For owners and lenders, those details matter: stronger traffic momentum and proven playbooks often translate into more resilient occupancy costs and fewer surprises at the unit level.
Coffee And Regional QSRs Behave Like Growth Retail
The coffee category and a cadre of regional QSR players are acting more like classic expansion retailers than mature chains. Coffee concepts were also a major topic of discussion at the show. Dutch Bros has delivered multiple consecutive quarters of traffic-driven same-store sales growth and is expanding its food offerings with a nationwide breakfast rollout.
Meanwhile, 7 Brew continues its rapid expansion, with plans to add more than 400 locations in 2026, while Starbucks works through an operational turnaround under CEO Brian Niccol. Regional quick-service chains are also extending their reach. In-N-Out Burger is expanding into new markets, including Tennessee and Washington, Whataburger continues to grow beyond its traditional footprint, and Culver's is investing in menu enhancements, technology upgrades and operational improvements. According to Placer.ai, Culver's ranked among the strongest performers in the QSR category during the first quarter based on same-store visitation growth.
These concepts are likely to be in the market for new pads, endcaps and drive‑thru‑friendly sites in the years ahead. For investors, they represent an opportunity to back high‑volume, often cult‑favorite tenants that can function as traffic anchors in both suburban and exurban locations.
Convenience Retailers Emerge As Direct Rivals
On the other side of many parking lots, convenience chains and warehouse clubs are no longer just background traffic generators – they are direct competitors for same‑day meal checks. Meanwhile, convenience store chains such as 7-Eleven, QuikTrip and Wawa have expanded made-to-order food programs, while warehouse clubs are broadening their fresh meal selections. As these offerings improve, the value proposition of grabbing dinner along with a fuel stop or weekly shop becomes harder for many households to ignore.
That is why Placer.ai finds quick-service restaurant visitation trends trailing those of grocery and superstores over the last year. For shopping center owners, that dynamic cuts both ways. Strong c‑store and club operators can drive consistent on‑site traffic, but weaker or highly price‑sensitive QSR tenants nearby may see their everyday occasions eroded, pressuring store‑level margins and, eventually, lease terms.
Thin Margins For Error For CRE Stakeholders
Underlying all of these trends is a more demanding consumer and a tighter operating environment for restaurants and their landlords. "The tailwinds of pent-up post-pandemic demand have given way to a more discerning consumer, a wider competitive set and thinner margins for error," the report said. "The chains that are winning share are doing so with a clear playbook: relevant menu innovation, disciplined value, sticky loyalty and operational investments that make the experience faster and easier."
For CRE investors, that playbook offers a useful filter for evaluating tenant rosters and prospective deals. Operators that lean into innovation, value, loyalty and speed are better positioned to keep traffic flowing even as grocery, c‑stores and clubs sharpen their food offerings. In a market where every trip is contested, properties aligned with those winners – and with anchors gaining prepared‑food share – are likely to enjoy the most durable restaurant‑driven income streams.
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