Commercial real estate prices are starting to look more settled, but three key pricing yardsticks show that stability is still selective and often fragile. Trepp's latest Q1 2026 read on property values, taken alongside new data from CoStar and Green Street, suggests a market that has largely absorbed the rate shock of 2022 and is now moving in narrower bands instead of broad swings.
Trepp Shows A Split Market
Trepp's Q1 numbers, based on its Trepp Property Price Index, point to only slight improvement overall and a clear divide between smaller deals and large, institutional assets. The equal‑weighted TPPI composite index, which gives smaller and mid‑sized transactions the same influence as bigger ones, ticked up 0.09% in the first quarter and now stands about 4.45% above its June 2022 level.
The value‑weighted composite index, which reflects where most of the capital is concentrated, rose 0.07% in the quarter, is up just 0.03% over the past year and remains roughly 7.53% below its June 2022 peak. The message: most of the broad repricing is behind the market, but large, institutional assets are still working through price discovery.
By property type, Trepp's data makes clear how uneven this process has been. Multifamily prices softened in Q1, with the equal‑weighted index down 0.77% from the prior quarter and 1.90% from a year earlier, leaving it 3.02% below June 2022. On a value‑weighted basis, the sector looks weaker still, with prices 14.58% below the 2022 high after a 1.33% quarterly drop.
Office tells almost the opposite story: Trepp's equal‑weighted office index rose 1.10% in the quarter and is now 8.06% above June 2022, while the value‑weighted office index is essentially flat for the quarter and still about 13.80% below its peak.
Retail and industrial continue to hold up better, with both equal‑ and value‑weighted indices posting modest quarterly gains and remaining above 2022 levels, with industrial showing the best case of this trend.
CoStar Flags A Pause In The Recovery
CoStar's latest Commercial Repeat‑Sale Indices echo some of the same themes but highlight a near‑term pullback that Trepp's quarterly reading doesn't fully capture. In April, both of CoStar's main composite indices slipped, with the value‑weighted U.S. Composite down 1.3% from March and the equal‑weighted index off 0.9%.
It was the first broad‑based decline after several months of incremental gains. On a 12‑month basis, pricing is still higher—up 3.5% for the value‑weighted index and 1.2% for the equal‑weighted measure—but the most recent month suggests that the earlier, modest uptrend is flattening out.
As CoStar's Chad Littell noted, "The commercial real estate recovery, after a downturn, is a multiyear process that accelerates and decelerates as it progresses through a broader trend higher. Markets rarely recover in a straight line."
The April data underlines how dependent the value‑weighted numbers remain on a thin set of large trades.
Several high‑profile office deals closed at losses, including the sale of Woodland Pointe in Herndon, Virginia, which CoStar reports sold for about $40.2 million, nearly $59.8 million below its 2008 price. Those markdowns pulled down the value‑weighted index, even as many smaller transactions still changed hands at above-prior values.
Green Street Highlights Retail's Outsized Role
Green Street's Commercial Property Price Index adds a third angle, one that currently puts retail front and center. In its most recent reading, the firm's all‑property index rose 1.6% in May. The headline move is modest, but the underlying details show that a handful of consumer‑facing sectors are doing most of the work.
Strip centers and malls were standouts: strip retail values climbed 3.8% during the month, while mall prices jumped 5%. Green Street points to renewed investor appetite for grocery‑anchored strips and higher‑quality malls where tenant sales look solid, supply is manageable and there is at least some rent growth.
Office, in Green Street's data, is showing a bit of life but from a deeply discounted base. The firm's index shows office values rising 1.5% in May, a welcome shift after a long run of declines. Even so, the gains are highly selective and focused on better‑leased, well‑located buildings.
Other sectors tied to durable themes—industrial, data centers, manufactured housing—continue to post steady, if unspectacular, monthly increases, while apartments, net lease and self‑storage are closer to flat, reflecting the lingering impact of earlier repricing.
Three Metrics, One Uneven Recovery
Taken together, Trepp, CoStar and Green Street are describing different slices of the same story. All three see a market that is no longer in free‑fall and, in many places, is edging higher. The recovery is uneven and heavily dependent on asset size, sector and quality.
Smaller and mid‑sized assets, necessity‑oriented retail, logistics and digital infrastructure look closest to a workable equilibrium, at least for now. Larger institutional properties—especially in office and lodging—remain more exposed to thin liquidity, higher capital costs and asset‑specific risk.
For owners, lenders and investors, the implication is that the worst of the broad repricing may be over, but the path forward will continue to be bumpy and highly segmented rather than a uniform rebound.
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