Rent growth in commercial real estate is no longer a broad national story. It is increasingly concentrated in a handful of metros where demand, industry mix and tenant concessions are pushing net effective rents higher, even as headline national numbers remain muted or uneven. The latest Columbia CompStak Rent Index (CCRI) update through first quarter 2026 makes that clear, showing Manhattan and a cluster of other hubs driving much of the gains while national averages can obscure what is really happening on the ground.
The CCRI, developed by CompStak and Columbia Business School faculty, is designed to capture "constant-quality" net effective rents across office, retail and industrial. It adjusts for changes in quality mix and incorporates concessions, so the movements in the index reflect real pricing shifts rather than a tilt toward higher-end buildings or generous tenant improvement packages. For executives making capital allocation or leasing decisions, that distinction is increasingly important as performance splinters by market and sector.
Manhattan's Repricing Leads The Pack
Nowhere is that concentration of growth more obvious than in Manhattan office. Over the year to the first quarter 2026, Manhattan office net effective rents are up 18.47 percent, compared with a 3.71 percent increase in the national office index over the same period. The market also posted a 10.91 percent quarter-over-quarter gain in the first quarter alone.
Because the CCRI controls for quality, those numbers represent genuine repricing of office space, not simply more deals in trophy towers. All components of effective rent contributed: starting rents moved higher and concessions, including tenant improvement allowances and free rent, came down.
The broader national office picture is more subdued. Effective rent growth has been recovering over the past year, but that positive momentum stalled in April. When Manhattan and a few other outperformers pull ahead so strongly, the gap between those markets and the average office experience widens, even if the national index shows only modest growth.
A Short List Of Outperformers
In office, the metros leading rent growth over the year to the first quarter of 2026 form a relatively short list. Houston, Atlanta and New York MSAs top the CCRI rankings with office rent gains of 25.9 percent, 15 percent and 14.5 percent, respectively, versus the 3.71 percent national office rent. Many of these markets are anchored by energy, finance or other in-person industries that are supporting demand for space and giving landlords enough leverage to trim concessions.
The laggards tell a different story. Boston, Chicago and Austin recorded office rent declines of 6.5 percent, 7.2 percent and 8.7 percent. Several of these markets absorbed heavy pandemic-era migration or tech-driven leasing and are now working through corrections. When those declines are averaged alongside outsized growth in a handful of metros, the national number lands somewhere in the middle and obscures the degree of dispersion.
Retail And Industrial Underscore The Split
Retail and industrial rents follow the same pattern of concentrated strength. In retail, Washington, San Francisco and Boston lead one-year rent growth through the first quarter of 2026 at 20.5 percent, 18.2 percent and 12.6 percent. Yet the national retail index shows a 1.84 percent decline over the period. The spread between the best and worst high-volume retail markets is roughly 44 points, with Phoenix, San Jose and Detroit posting rent drops of 18.6 percent, 21.2 percent and 23.3 percent.
Industrial appears more stable on the surface, but here again, a few metros carry much of the upside. Charlotte, Washington and Miami lead industrial rent growth at 17.7 percent, 14.2 percent and 10.1 percent, while Boston, Baltimore and Seattle show declines of 9 percent, 12 percent and 30.6 percent. The national industrial index is up just 0.24 percent over the same period.
Across all three sectors, the CCRI data point toward a market where "average" conditions matter less than they did in the last cycle. In some metros, like Houston and Atlanta, office is surging while industrial is flat or contracting. In others, such as Boston and Chicago, weak office is offset by positive retail growth. For investors, lenders and occupiers, the takeaway is that a small group of metros is doing much of the work in lifting rent growth—and that constant-quality indices may be a better guide than national averages for where the real gains are happening.
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