Job Growth Splits U.S. Metros As RealPage Flags Clear Winners And Losers

RealPage's numbers suggest that these markets are not just posting one‑off spikes; they are consistently delivering job growth at a pace that can support household formation, consumer spending and, ultimately, demand for commercial and multifamily space.

For investors, the implication is straightforward: markets such as New York, Las Vegas, Phoenix, Houston and the key tech and business hubs in Texas and the Carolinas continue to look like employment engines. Steady job creation there can help underpin rent rolls, leasing velocity and pricing, even if national averages look more muted.

Midwest And Northeast Under Pressure

The picture looks very different in the parts of the country that RealPage tags as job losers. The ten markets with the largest job declines in May 2026 were mainly in the Midwest and Northeast, and together they lost 25,000 jobs compared to April and 224,900 jobs year over year.

RealPage notes that even though 10,400 jobs were added in this group over the period, 235,300 jobs disappeared, indicating incremental hiring is not keeping pace with cuts.

A major driver of this weakness is Washington, DC, where RealPage cites federal job reductions as a key contributor to the slump. This kind of public‑sector downsizing can ripple through local office demand, reduce spending in surrounding retail corridors and weigh on multifamily performance as well‑paid government workers exit the market.

In other Midwest and Northeast metros, the losses often stem from slower‑growing industrial and legacy business bases, which can make it harder for these markets to pivot toward stronger employment sectors.

For CRE investors with exposure in these regions, RealPage's data reinforces the need for caution. Persistent job losses raise questions about future occupancy, renewal rates and the depth of tenant demand, especially for office and certain retail assets. Even well‑located properties can feel the impact when the broader labor market is shrinking rather than expanding.

Mixed Signals At The State Level

Drilling down to the state level, RealPage's May figures show that the divide between winners and losers is not always clean. Texas, California and North Carolina each had four or more markets with job gains, while New York, Nevada and North Carolina had at least two growing markets. Nine other states posted at least one metro with job growth.

According to RealPage, that concentration of gains suggests that some states are generating multiple pockets of strength, which can support diversified investment strategies within their borders.

At the same time, several states delivered mixed results that complicate the story. In California, RealPage reports job gains in the Bay Area but losses in southern markets, with San Diego a notable exception.

In Florida, Miami shows growth, but metros including Fort Lauderdale, West Palm Beach, Tallahassee, Tampa, Naples and Cape Coral‑Fort Myers recorded job losses.

Jobs also fell across metros in Michigan, Massachusetts, Oregon, Virginia, Washington, DC and 13 other states, reinforcing that investors cannot rely on state‑level averages alone when evaluating risk.

For investors, this patchwork underscores the importance of metro‑specific underwriting. A state can be a net job gainer and still contain markets facing real employment headwinds, and RealPage's breakdown helps highlight where those risks are most acute.

Smaller Markets Show Big Swings

RealPage's May report also points out that smaller markets are posting some of the largest annual percentage changes in employment. These are often state capitals, college towns and resort or tourist destinations, where a relatively modest shift in job numbers can translate into large percentage moves.

According to RealPage, Fayetteville, Arkansas, led the pack with job growth of 2.6 percent, followed by Myrtle Beach at 2.3 percent and Las Vegas at 2.1 percent.

Fresno posted 2 percent growth, while Wilmington, North Carolina, was also at 2 percent. Baton Rouge and Greenville, South Carolina, each recorded 1.8 percent growth. San Jose grew 1.5 percent, and Charlotte and Fort Collins both came in at 1.4 percent.

Other growing metros cited by RealPage include Raleigh/Durham, Reno, Salt Lake City, Orlando, Austin, Lakeland in Florida and Phoenix.

On the flip side, RealPage reports that the greatest job loss rates were in Washington, DC and Portland, Oregon, each averaging declines of 2.9 percent.

They were followed by losses in Toledo, Lansing, Eugene in Oregon, Fargo and Providence. For investors, those percentages are meaningful. In smaller and mid‑sized markets, a few thousand jobs gained or lost can quickly change the tone of the leasing market, alter concessions and influence how aggressive owners can be on rent increases.

RealPage's May data paints a clear picture: job growth is not evenly distributed, and the split between winners and losers is becoming more pronounced. Metros with sustained gains – both major gateways and smaller growth markets – are likely to provide greater support for CRE fundamentals.

Markets with ongoing losses, especially in parts of the Midwest, Northeast and federal‑heavy regions, will demand closer scrutiny as investors weigh how much employment risk they are willing to carry in their portfolios.